FX.co ★ US Inflation Rate Likely Accelerated for 2nd Month

The annual inflation rate in the United States is anticipated to have risen for the second month in a row, reaching 3.1% in September 2025, up from 2.9% in August. This would represent the highest rate since May 2024. The expected increase is attributed to rising food prices, goods affected by tariffs, and a slower-than-anticipated decrease in service-sector inflation, particularly in the housing sector. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to maintain a steady rate of 3.1%. The monthly figures for headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) are projected to remain unchanged at 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, indicating that the impact of tariffs on prices remains limited. Although the CPI report was initially set for release on October 15, it was postponed due to the government shutdown. Nonetheless, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has recalled some of its staff members from furlough to ensure the publication of the necessary data.