FX.co ★ Skull999 | EUR/JPY

EURJPY Daily Forecast The daily chart of the EUR/JPY pair shows that the pair has entered a mature sideways trading phase after a significant downside correction. The price is currently trading in a range. The strong uptrend reached a major peak at 174.95 in mid-July 2024. This rise marked the end of a sustained uptrend that had been ongoing since April 2024. Following this recovery, the EUR/JPY pair fell to 155.38 on August 23, 2024. This decline represented a correction of approximately 2,000 points, suggesting that this was a complex downward correction rather than a short-term decline. The downtrend from the July peak gradually turned into a descending trend line connecting the peaks of July 15, September 19, and December 20, 2024. This downward resistance line capped the price gains that continued over the past few months. However, this trendline was decisively broken on March 18, 2025, when a strong bullish candle closed above the trendline and the middle Bollinger Band. This signaled a structural reversal, moving from bearish control to a neutral sideways trend. Following this breakout, the price moved in a sideways pattern, forming a rectangular structure that lasted for about three months, with a low of 161.50 and a high of 165.20. Since then, the price has fluctuated within a range of 370 basis points and is currently testing the upper bound at 165.03, a key resistance level that coincides with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level from the July 2024 high of 174.95 to the August 2024 low of 155.38. This convergence makes the 165.00-165.20 area a key area for buyers to regain control and test higher pullbacks, such as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 167.65. Meanwhile, support at 161.50 has been tested several times (including April 17, May 1, and May 23, 2025) and has shown its strength as a demand zone. Also, the 38.2% retracement level at 162.73 is currently acting as intermediate support within the rectangle. Therefore, the trend structure has shifted to a sideways pattern since March, and this sideways price action has created a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. The market is waiting for this area to break to determine the next direction. A sustained breakout of 165.20 would likely signal a renewed uptrend. The first target is 167.60, followed by 170.08, the highest level since early June 2024. Conversely, a decline from 161.50 would revive downside risks with a possible downside correction towards 159.00, which has been the key support since August 2024, and then the next target would be 155.38. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 63.5, indicating some slight upward momentum, but it has not yet reached the overbought zone. This indicates a possible breakout, but buyers are not actively pushing the price higher. The Stochastic Oscillator recently made a bullish crossover near 70.5, indicating a resumption of buying. However, caution is advised as the overbought zone approaches. The MACD is in the bullish zone, with its line above the signal line. This suggests that the current momentum is bullish, but not strong enough to justify a significant breakout on its own. Price performance around 165.00 is crucial to determining whether this sideways move will turn bullish. If the bulls find volume support and break through this area later today, the price accumulation in this range will end and the bullish breakout pattern that began in March will continue. Notably, the price has begun to reach the upper Bollinger Band, which usually precedes volatility and momentum. This suggests that the current retest of the 165.00 level is not a coincidence, but rather part of a possible breakout pattern. The trend structure has shifted significantly from a strong downtrend since the July 2024 peak to a neutral sideways phase since March 2025. The long-term downtrend line has been broken and the current price is forming a base above the 161.50-162.50 support. This base came after a particularly strong uptrend, suggesting that the downside correction momentum may have weakened. If the market manages to stay above the 165.00 level, the next structural pullback could lead to a new uptrend and break the current sideways accumulation pattern. In this case, the last box would be considered a sideways phase before the trend resumes rather than a distribution. So, EUR/JPY is currently in a critical technical phase as it tests the multi-month resistance level at 165.03. A strong breakout could reverse the recent sideways trend into a bullish continuation with a target of 167.60 or even higher. At this stage, EUR/JPY is trading outside the 161.50-165.20 range where the price is aligned with the Fib retracement levels and the previous trend line. The trend structure is in a reversal phase and waiting for a directional confirmation. Although the indicators are showing a slight upward bias, the price is expected to confirm the next range.