FX.co ★ UFCworriers | NZD/JPY

DAILY CHART ANALYSIS OF NZDJPY The daily frame indicates that NZDJPY is still broadly trending upwards in the medium term; however, the near-term price movement shows a corrective phase that is trying to change into bullish continuation. The first impulsive leg rose sharply from the 89.9590.00 base, outlining a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and pushing the price to the 94.70-94.80 zone. That peak now serves as the main swing resistance and marks the upper limit of the current pattern. After reaching that high, the pair reversed and moved down toward the 91.90-92.00 area before getting fresh buying interest. Looking at the structure, the market is still following a rising trendline that starts at the lows in January near 89.95 and goes through the higher lows after that. Even during the decline from 94.75, the price did not clearly break below the ascending dynamic support zone, which was between 91.90 and 92.20. Keeping the higher lows this way, the market retains the characteristics of the broader uptrend. The latest bounce from the 92.00 area indicates that buyers are still willing to support the price at this level. Applying Fibonacci retracement to the main upswing from about 89.95 (100%) to 94.75 (0%), we get the key retracement levels that are currently influencing price behavior. The 23.6% retracement is near 93.95, and during the latest bounce, it has been the first resistance area. The 38.2% retracement is at 93.15, the level that was first resistance during the fall, and after the recent rally, it becomes support on the short term. 50.0% retracement is at around 92.35, which is a very important turning level where price remained in a narrow range before making the recent bullish breakout. Going down, the 61.8% retracement can be found near 91.95-92.00, which is almost at the same level as the rising trendline, and they form a very strong area for support through the confluence. This 61.8% level was retested during the correction, and it held successfully, thus confirming its position in the structure. The latest bullish candle shows that there is a strong momentum, which has led to the territory above the 50.0% level at 92.35 being reclaimed and the price pushing through 93.15 (38.2%). This change in direction implies that the corrective structure might be changing into a new impulsive leg higher. However, the 93.95 area (23.6%) is the next resistance level that traders should keep an eye on. If the price closes above 93.95 on a daily basis, it would suggest that the retracement phase is over and the path to the swing high at 94.75 would be open. A break above 94.75 would be a confirmation of the continuation of the primary uptrend, and the 95.50, 96.00 region might be revealed as the next technical projection based on measured move and prior range expansion. On the otherside, the failure to sustain traction above 93.15 might cause the price to reconsolidate between 93.15 and 92.35. The 92.35 point is still a crucial balance area; if it were to break down, the short-term momentum would go back to neutral, bearish, and the chance of another test of 91.95 (61.8%) would very likely be increased. If price closed below 91.95 in a decisive manner, it would constitute a deeper structural breakdown; thus, the current higher, lower sequence might be invalidated, and the psychological 91.00 level could be uncovered, to be followed by the major base at 89.95-90.00 (100%). A break of 89.95 would indicate a wider trend reversal, but for now, that case remains technically far. In general, the trend structure is still a bit bullish as the price is trading above the upward trendline and it has also reclaimed some important Fibonacci retracement levels. The primary support area is between 91.95 and 92.35, whereas resistance levels are at 93.95 and 94.75. The market is presently located in the top half of the retracement range, which indicates that the bullish control is getting stronger. If higher lows are kept forming above 91.95 and the price is able to stay above 93.15, then the chance of continuation toward 94.75 is more likely. The upcoming direction will most probably be decided around the resistance of 93.95, which is the point where either confirmation of strength or fresh rejection will determine the short-term path within the larger upward structure.