FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

USD/CHF M15 Technical Analysis — Smart Money Concepts 1. Market Structure & Current Price Action According to the provided USD/CHF M15 chart, price has experienced a clear transition from an earlier bullish expansion into a strong bearish displacement, followed by a corrective recovery and then renewed selling pressure. The chart shows price currently around 0.80430, while the marked intraday resistance is around 0.80443. The overall structure is important because the market first created a strong upward expansion from the lower levels, established a significant HIGH near 0.80614, and later suffered a sharp bearish move toward the marked LOW area. I consider this sequence important because it demonstrates a complete change in short-term order flow rather than a simple pullback. After the large bearish candle sequence, buyers attempted to recover, but the recovery has so far failed to produce a convincing new bullish structure. Therefore, on this M15 chart, the immediate structure remains cautious to bearish unless price can reclaim the important resistance area with strong momentum. 2. BULLISH MOMENTUM The left side of the chart clearly shows strong BULLISH MOMENTUM. Price moved aggressively upward from the lower area and produced several consecutive bullish candles with relatively strong bodies. This expansion indicates that buyers were in control during that particular phase. The move was not a slow grind; instead, price accelerated rapidly and pushed through previous intraday highs. This type of displacement is significant from a Smart Money Concepts perspective because it demonstrates an imbalance between buying and selling pressure. The bullish move eventually reached the upper region around 0.80600–0.80614, where price began to struggle. I would not treat the earlier bullish momentum as confirmation that the current market is still bullish, because the subsequent bearish displacement completely changed the short-term context. The important lesson from this chart is that previous bullish momentum created liquidity and structure, but the market later used that structure before reversing aggressively. 3. BOS — Break of Structure The chart marks BOS, or Break of Structure, during the earlier bullish expansion. Price broke above an important previous swing area and continued toward the upper liquidity region. This BOS confirms that buyers were able to overcome the previous short-term structure at that stage. However, BOS should always be interpreted within the complete sequence rather than in isolation. After the bullish BOS, price consolidated and repeatedly tested higher levels before eventually reaching the major high. Once the market failed to continue higher and began producing aggressive bearish candles, the meaning of the earlier BOS became less important for the current setup. In my reading, the later bearish displacement is now more relevant to the current M15 structure. Therefore, I would use the earlier BOS as evidence of where bullish control existed previously, while focusing on the later bearish movement to understand the present order flow. 4. BEARISH ORDER BLOCK The upper red zone marked BEARISH ORDER BLOCK is one of the most important areas on this chart. It is positioned around the upper price region close to 0.80600–0.80614, where price repeatedly attempted to continue higher but failed. After multiple tests and rejection behavior, sellers eventually produced the major bearish displacement from this area. This makes the zone particularly important because it represents an area where selling pressure became dominant. If price later returns toward this Bearish Order Block, I would expect it to be treated as a major supply/resistance region rather than automatically assuming another breakout. The reaction inside this zone should be watched carefully. A strong rejection would strengthen the bearish scenario, whereas sustained M15 closes above the zone would weaken the bearish interpretation. On the current chart, however, price remains well below this area, so the Bearish Order Block is currently an overhead resistance/supply reference. 5. HIGH & Liquidity The marked HIGH around 0.80614 is another major structural reference. Price approached this area several times, creating a concentration of buying interest and likely liquidity around the visible highs. The repeated tests are important because each failed attempt to establish a sustained breakout can increase the significance of the liquidity sitting above the highs. Eventually, price reversed sharply from the upper region. From the perspective of the chart, the high therefore represents the point where the previous bullish campaign lost control. I would continue treating 0.80614 as the major visible high until price establishes a new structural high above it. If price moves back toward this level, the reaction around the previous high and Bearish Order Block should be monitored together. A simple wick above the high would not automatically confirm bullish continuation; the following candle closes and market structure would be more important. 6. FVG — Fair Value Gap The chart highlights FVG — Fair Value Gap zones within the previous price movement. These areas are important because the strong directional candles created inefficient price movement, leaving zones where price moved rapidly with limited two-sided trading. The upper FVG around the 0.8055–0.8057 region can be viewed as an area that price may revisit during a deeper retracement. Another FVG is marked lower in the previous consolidation area around approximately 0.8049–0.8051. I would not assume that every FVG must be filled immediately. Instead, these zones should be treated as potential reaction areas. If price retraces upward into an FVG and simultaneously encounters resistance, that combination can become more meaningful. Conversely, if price passes through an FVG with strong bullish candles, the zone loses some immediate bearish significance. Therefore, on this chart, I would use FVGs as reaction and confirmation zones rather than standalone entry signals.

7. MSS — Market Structure Shift The marked MSS — Market Structure Shift is particularly important because it represents the transition between the previous bullish structure and the developing bearish structure. Price had been moving upward and creating higher levels, but eventually the market broke down through an important internal support area. This shift indicates that the previous buying sequence was losing strength. The subsequent bearish displacement gives additional confirmation to the structural change. In my interpretation, MSS is more relevant to the current setup than the earlier bullish BOS because it occurred closer to the major reversal. Once the market shifted structure, the recovery that followed the large bearish move became more likely to be interpreted as a retracement unless buyers could reclaim key resistance and produce another bullish BOS. At the moment, the chart does not show that strong bullish confirmation. 8. BEARISH MOMENTUM The strongest bearish evidence on the chart is the clearly marked BEARISH MOMENTUM following the upper rejection. Price declined rapidly from the 0.8058–0.8060 region and produced a series of large bearish candles. The speed of this move is important because it indicates aggressive selling rather than ordinary sideways consolidation. Price eventually broke through the previous support area and moved toward the marked LOW. This bearish displacement changed the short-term market environment. After such a strong move, I would generally avoid assuming that every small recovery is automatically a trend reversal. The current candles show that price recovered from the low but later struggled around the 0.80430–0.80443 region. Therefore, unless buyers can produce sustained bullish displacement above resistance, the bearish momentum remains an important factor in the M15 analysis. 9. LOW & Sell-Side Liquidity The marked LOW following the major bearish displacement is another critical level. Price moved aggressively downward and established a visible low before beginning the recovery. This area can be considered important from a liquidity perspective because obvious lows can attract sell-side liquidity. The market may revisit such a low to test or sweep the liquidity before deciding on its next direction. I would therefore avoid treating the low simply as an ordinary support line. The reaction around it is more important than the line itself. If price returns toward the low and produces a sharp rejection followed by bullish MSS, that could indicate that sellers are losing control. On the other hand, a decisive M15 close below the low would indicate renewed bearish pressure and could suggest continuation of the downward structure. The chart therefore gives us a clear reference point for judging whether the recovery can hold. 10. BULLISH ORDER BLOCK The green BULLISH ORDER BLOCK positioned below the central price area represents an important demand-related zone created during the earlier bullish expansion. This region sits beneath the current market and can become significant if price revisits it. The reason I would watch this zone is that it was associated with the earlier aggressive buying movement. If sellers push price downward again, the Bullish Order Block can potentially act as a reaction area. However, an order block should not be treated as guaranteed support. I would want to see price reaction, rejection candles, or a lower-timeframe structure shift before considering it strong. If the zone holds and buyers generate displacement upward, it could become the foundation for another recovery. If price breaks through it decisively, the bullish demand interpretation becomes weaker and attention would shift toward the lower liquidity and demand region. 11. DEMAND ORDER BLOCK The purple DEMAND ORDER BLOCK near the lower-right side of the chart is especially relevant to the current price location. It is positioned around the 0.8036–0.8039 area and has already attracted buying activity after the sharp bearish decline. Price reacted from this region and moved upward toward 0.80443, showing that buyers are active around this demand zone. The subsequent decline from the resistance area has brought price back closer to the upper portion of this demand region. I would therefore treat this area as the immediate downside defense for buyers. If price reaches the Demand Order Block and produces a strong bullish rejection, the recovery could develop again. But if price closes decisively below the zone, the demand structure would be compromised. For the current chart, this purple zone is one of the most useful areas for determining whether the market can maintain its recovery or resume the bearish move. 12. RESISTANCE — 0.80443 The red horizontal level around 0.80443 is currently one of the clearest short-term resistance references on the chart. Price recovered from the low and moved upward into this area, but the recovery struggled to establish sustained acceptance above it. This tells me that sellers are still defending the upper side of the current short-term range. The nearby green intraday level around 0.80430 adds another layer to this structure. If price remains below 0.80443, the current recovery can continue to be viewed as corrective. A strong M15 breakout above 0.80443, followed by successful retesting from above, would improve the bullish case. However, repeated rejection from this level would favor another move toward the lower support and Demand Order Block. Therefore, I would use 0.80443 as the immediate decision point rather than trying to predict the direction before price shows confirmation. 13. INTRADAY LEVEL & Current Consolidation The marked INTRADAY LEVEL around 0.80430 is currently close to the live price shown on the chart. Price has been moving sideways around this area after recovering from the lower demand region. This consolidation indicates temporary equilibrium between buyers and sellers. The important point is that the consolidation is occurring beneath the marked resistance at 0.80443, meaning buyers have not yet demonstrated enough strength to fully reclaim the upper level. At the same time, sellers have not yet broken the nearby demand structure. This creates a short-term decision zone. A bullish breakout and sustained candles above resistance could shift momentum toward the FVGs and higher levels. A bearish rejection followed by a break beneath the local consolidation would increase the probability of another test of the Demand Order Block and potentially the previous low. 14. Overall Bias & Trading Scenario My overall reading of this USD/CHF M15 chart is that the market has moved from bullish momentum → major high → bearish momentum → low → corrective recovery → consolidation below resistance. The most important bearish evidence is the sharp displacement from the Bearish Order Block and the subsequent Market Structure Shift. The most important bullish evidence is the reaction from the lower Demand Order Block and the recovery toward 0.80443. Therefore, I would currently keep a cautious bearish-to-neutral intraday bias while price remains below the marked resistance. If sellers reject 0.80430–0.80443, the next focus would be the lower Demand Order Block around 0.8036–0.8039, followed by the marked low if that demand fails. Conversely, a convincing M15 breakout above 0.80443 could allow price to move toward the nearby FVG around 0.8049–0.8051, with the higher FVG and eventually the Bearish Order Block becoming relevant. For me, the cleanest confirmation is not simply touching a level; it is how price reacts there and whether it creates a fresh BOS or MSS.