FX.co ★ NZD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, NZD/USD is attracting buyers, breaking a three-day losing streak. However, its upward potential appears limited.

A generally positive tone in equity markets is preventing a stronger U.S. dollar recovery from its more than one-month low, which supports the risk-sensitive New Zealand dollar. However, the current rebound lacks a clear fundamental catalyst and may fade quickly amid prevailing bearish sentiment.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish pause on Wednesday contrasts sharply with the more aggressive policy easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), warranting caution before opening new bullish positions in NZD/USD. Persistent concerns over Trump's administration's protectionist trade tariffs further add to the uncertainty.

Additionally, expectations that Trump's policies could drive inflation higher have contributed to a modest rebound in U.S. Treasury yields, which supports the U.S. dollar. As a result, the NZD/USD pair may face resistance ahead of the U.S. Core PCE Price Index release.

Technical Outlook

Neutral oscillators suggest caution before initiating new long positions. Moreover, the 14-day EMA and 9-day EMA merging into a single line indicate a sideways price movement, reinforcing the outlook for a range-bound market in the near term.