FX.co ★ EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast

The pair continues to trade within a familiar range

EUR/USD is trading within its established range today. The euro remained firm, preventing the pair from declining after the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) coalition reclaimed leadership in Germany following Sunday's federal elections. This outcome has brought an end to the period of political instability that had persisted in Germany over recent months.

Technical Outlook

Despite the short-term stability, the broader bearish trend in EUR/USD remains intact, as indicated by the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart, which continues to act as resistance to any upside attempts. However, a further bullish correction cannot be ruled out, given that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in positive territory, hovering above the midline near 55.50.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: The first downward target for EUR/USD is 1.0400, which marks the February 19 low. Additional support is seen around 1.0450.
• Resistance: The primary resistance zone is located between 1.0525–1.0535, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is positioned. A sustained breakout above this area could drive EUR/USD toward the December high at 1.0630. Further gains would face additional resistance at the psychological level of 1.0700, followed by the 200-day SMA and the August lows near 1.0760.