FX.co ★ July 25 Stock Market Update: S&P 500, NASDAQ pause after rally

As of July 25, US equity indices posted a mixed performance. The S&P 500 edged up by 0.07%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.17%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.40%.

A seven-day rally in global equities began to fade in Asia as uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate-cut trajectory dampened investor risk appetite. The MSCI All Country World Index fell 0.2%, and Japan's Topix index pulled back from record-high closing levels. The dollar climbed 0.2% after President Donald Trump said he saw no need to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened following reports that the Bank of Japan may consider another rate hike this year.

US Treasuries held steady after two days of declines. Gold extended its losses, and Bitcoin dropped 2.7%. Futures on European stock indices fell 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures added 0.2% during Asian trading.

Stronger-than-expected US labor data released Thursday further undermined the case for rate cuts by the Fed. While traders aren't pricing in a cut next week, expectations for easing later in the year have also diminished. Markets are now adjusting forecasts to reflect a more hawkish Fed stance in the months ahead. Robust job creation and moderate wage growth suggest that the US economy remains resilient enough to endure current interest rate levels. This gives the Fed greater flexibility to maintain rates at elevated levels longer—unless inflation trends more decisively toward the 2% target. Still, investors should brace for lingering uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy outlook in the coming months. Under such conditions, a diversified portfolio and a cautious risk approach remain prudent strategies.

Meanwhile, Trump continues to exert pressure on Powell. Although the president has dialed back the urgency to replace the Fed chair, markets now anticipate a more hawkish tone from Powell at the upcoming meeting. The probability of an accelerated easing cycle has diminished as both political signals and economic indicators reinforce the Fed's more cautious stance.

Technically, the key task for S&P 500 bulls today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,383. This would open the door for continued gains, with an eye toward the $6,392 level. Another top priority for buyers will be holding the $6,400 mark, which would solidify bullish control. If risk appetite declines and the index moves lower, bulls will need to make a stand near $6,373. A break below this level could swiftly push the instrument down to $6,364 and potentially to $6,355.