FX.co ★ XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, gold prices are correcting from the record high reached on Tuesday, amid a moderate recovery in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar has paused its decline as markets reposition ahead of the key FOMC rate decision, which has put slight pressure on the precious metal. As a result, gold ended its three-day winning streak after setting a new all-time high. Nevertheless, downward potential remains limited.

Investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle, with two cuts expected before the end of this year. This outlook caps further U.S. dollar strength and supports gold, keeping it near historical highs.

In addition, geopolitical risks stemming from the escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East help limit losses in the precious metal, which is traditionally considered a safe-haven asset. This, in turn, calls for caution from XAU/USD bears.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is in overbought territory, which is a key factor encouraging profit-taking in this asset. However, the corrective pullback may be seen as a buying opportunity near the 3658 level. But a decline below this point, leading to further losses under 3630, could drive the precious metal's price toward the 3612–3600 level.

This zone represents a solid base for XAU/USD; a break below it would open the way to deeper losses toward support at 3578–3565–3540, on the path to the psychological 3500 level.

On the other hand, bulls should wait for sustained growth and a firm break above the round 3700 level before opening positions to continue the established upward trend.