FX.co ★ USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) interest rate decision is scheduled for Thursday, September 25, 2025, followed by a press conference from Chairman Martin Schlegel. It is expected that the central bank will once again keep the key rate at 0.0%, marking a second consecutive meeting without changes after six straight cuts since March of last year. Market expectations do not point to further cuts this year, while any potential moves next year remain uncertain. Investors and traders should closely monitor Schlegel's remarks for signals that could indicate a review of the negative rate policy. This decision will have a significant impact on the Swiss franc's exchange rate and provide momentum for USD/CHF movement.

Domestic inflation in Switzerland remains below the SNB's target, and the franc's recent strengthening may once again push the bank to consider resuming negative rates. This rules out expectations of a "hawkish" tightening and suggests that the Swiss franc is unlikely to strengthen. Amid the key risks tied to the SNB's decision, USD/CHF is fluctuating in a narrow range around the 0.7940 support level, where the 9-day EMA is located, against the backdrop of moderate U.S. dollar weakness.

A "dovish" scenario would allow the pair to continue rebounding from the 0.7900 level – the weekly low reached the day before – and break above this week's high near 0.7975. In this case, the bulls would target the psychological level of 0.8000.

Conversely, an unexpected "hawkish" tone would trigger a sharp sell-off and bring quotes back to the 0.7900 level. A subsequent decline would be seen by the bears as a signal for further selling, targeting intermediate support near 0.7855 and ultimately a drop to 0.7830 — the lowest level since September 2011, recorded last week.