FX.co ★ $115,000: new starting point for Bitcoin rally? Euro on rise

In order to form a sustained rally in October, the flagship cryptocurrency must break through the $115,000 barrier, according to analysts at QCP Capital. Right now, the leading crypto asset is only approaching this level.

According to analysts, open interest in Bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies is gradually stabilizing. Current conditions in the crypto market are favorable for the start of a Bitcoin bullish trend. QCP Capital analysts also noted a recovery in prices, despite significant capital outflows from ETFs.

Prices are absorbing selling pressure more smoothly than previously expected. After recovering part of their earlier losses, ETF inflows could spark renewed institutional demand ahead of a seasonally "bullish" month, the company points out.

At the same time, Bitcoin volatility is showing a tendency to weaken. QCP Capital believes this trend will continue as the spot crypto market consolidates ahead of the US jobs report release. Recall that these data will be published on Friday, October 3.

Earlier, specialists at 10x Research noted that both Bitcoin and Ethereum have reached price levels from which previous explosive rallies and sharp corrections used to start. "The current situation in the crypto market has become as dangerous and exciting as it hasn't been for several years," the analysts emphasize.

An unexpected twist: why you shouldn't celebrate BTC reaching $114,000

According to Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk and a financial analyst, even a small bitcoin correction could turn into a major sell-off. In such a situation, he urges caution and advises against celebrating the rise of the flagship asset to $114,000 and above.

On Wednesday, October 1, Bitcoin was trading at $114,560, attempting to break higher. According to King's calculations, any drop in bitcoin's price could trigger mass liquidations: a decline to $110,000 would close about $800 million in positions, and at $105,000, liquidations could hit $2 billion. "If Bitcoin falls to a critical $95,000, total losses could reach $7–8 billion," the expert adds.

This process is known as a liquidation cascade. In such situations, when some positions are automatically closed, it heightens market pressure and provokes further price declines. This, in turn, triggers a new wave of liquidations. Note that on crypto exchanges, liquidations occur automatically, meaning you can lose all your funds in minutes.

Jacob King points out that the majority of crypto exchanges remain unregulated. He compares them to "poker tables where the dealer can see the players' cards." In his view, exchanges have full information on client positions and can influence price movements as they see fit.

The single European currency gains confidence

Under current circumstances, the dynamics of the euro warrant special attention: recently, it has strengthened and partially edged out the dollar. The recent pullback in the EUR/USD pair was driven by long profit-taking after the Fed rate cut, a drop in US stock indices, and strong American macro data. "However, after investors bought the dip in the S&P 500, and FOMC officials signaled further monetary policy easing, the euro spread its wings," experts emphasize.

Jerome Powell and his colleagues are ready to support the cooling US labor market. In these conditions, they are paying little attention to accelerating inflation. Against this backdrop, the probability of a federal funds rate cut in October has jumped to an impressive 91%. Analysts and market participants also consider another possible cut in December 2025.

According to Philip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, the odds of eurozone inflation returning to low levels are slim, while the probability of it rising above the 2% target is also limited. In this scenario, experts conclude that the European regulator has completed its monetary policy easing cycle.

The ECB-Fed rate differential may narrow. Historically, this has led to euro appreciation against the dollar. Currently, the US stock market rally is also weighing on the greenback. At the same time, market participants are hedging currency risks by selling dollars. This has created a direct correlation between the euro and stock indices— the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100.

As long as US stock indices continue to rise and the Fed lowers rates amid a cooling labor market, the EUR/USD pair's growth prospects will increase. The main risks are a positive surprise in US employment in September and S&P 500 consolidation amid increased volatility in October. This could be driven by a government shutdown, experts conclude.