FX.co ★ USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CHF pair is struggling to hold yesterday's levels. The exchange rate barely changed after the release of Swiss consumer inflation figures. According to the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.2% in September after a 0.1% decline in August. On an annual basis, inflation stood at 0.2%, matching August's result but falling short of expectations for a 0.3% increase.

Nevertheless, this data has little impact on the Swiss franc or the USD/CHF pair amid mixed signals regarding Swiss National Bank (SNB) policy. SNB President Martin Schlegel stated that the central bank is ready to cut interest rates if necessary, but noted a higher threshold for such a move, stressing that moderate inflation growth is expected in the coming quarters, which may allow the SNB to keep current rates unchanged.

At the same time, "dovish" expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy are forcing dollar supporters to take a defensive stance, limiting the growth of USD/CHF. Traders have strengthened expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed before the end of this year following Wednesday's weak U.S. private-sector employment data. According to Automatic Data Processing, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September—the largest decline since March 2023. In addition, the partial U.S. government shutdown is adding to negative sentiment toward the dollar and limiting USD/CHF's upward potential.

From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart are negative, confirming the pair's bearish bias. The nearest resistance is at 0.7975, while immediate support lies at 0.7958. A break below this level would open the way to the next support at 0.7940 on the path toward the key 0.7900 level.

Resistance was encountered at 0.7975. A breakout above this level would position USD/CHF to return to the psychological 0.8000 level, with some obstacles on the way near 0.7900.