FX.co ★ Forecast for USD/JPY on October 3, 2025

Today's labor data from Japan showed a jump in the August unemployment rate from 2.3% to 2.6% (forecast: 2.4%). According to market participants, such figures will slow the Bank of Japan's monetary tightening. Considering that the yen has spent 2.5 months in the 146.29–149.38 range precisely in anticipation of tightening signals, after a signal pointing to easing, the pair may break out of the range upward.

On the daily chart, we see that the upper boundary of the range at 149.38 will soon align with the MACD line, so their overlap may provoke another strong price surge, continuing the uptrend. The target is the 151.70–152.10 range. The Marlin oscillator is close to entering positive territory. An initial upward move may be expected today or on Monday.

A move below support at 146.29 would open the alternative bearish scenario with a target at 144.33. If this happens, it would likely mean new global concerns have emerged.

On the H4 chart, the Marlin oscillator is also close to turning positive. The first resistance lies at the MACD line near 148.07. A breakout above it would pave the way to testing 149.38.