FX.co ★ Forecast for EUR/USD on October 3, 2025

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair turned in favor of the U.S. dollar and fell to the 76.4% retracement level at 1.1695. A rebound from this level allows us to expect renewed growth toward the resistance zone at 1.1789–1.1802. A close below 1.1695 will increase the probability of continued decline toward the support level at 1.1637–1.1645.

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave has not yet broken the previous high. Thus, for now, the trend remains "bearish." Recent labor market data and the changed outlook for Fed monetary policy support bullish traders, which means the trend may start shifting again this week. For the bearish trend to end, price must consolidate above the last peak – 1.1819.

On Thursday, there was only one notable event, apart from the growing "shutdown" that everyone is talking about. In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate rose to 6.3% in August, which traders had not expected. It should be noted that the unemployment rate in the EU has been steadily falling over the past 10 years, so a one-time increase of 0.1% is hardly a serious cause for concern. Nevertheless, bearish traders seized the opportunity. However, to maintain the bearish trend, traders will need more news – either positive for the dollar or negative for the euro. Several such reports could have been released today, but due to the shutdown, U.S. labor market and unemployment data will not be published, at least according to official economic calendars. In any case, the U.S. labor market continues to face difficulties, as confirmed by this week's weak ADP report. It seems traders can now only rely on that data.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned in favor of the euro near the 1.1680 level. Thus, growth may resume toward the 161.8% retracement level at 1.1854. A close below 1.1680 would favor the U.S. dollar and open the way for further decline toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.1495. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Over the last reporting week, professional players closed 789 long positions and opened 2,625 short positions. Sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump, and it has been strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators is now 252,000, compared to 138,000 short positions – nearly a two-to-one ratio. Also note the number of green cells in the table above: they show strong increases in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to grow, while interest in the dollar is declining.

For thirty-three consecutive weeks, large traders have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may create long-term, structural problems for the U.S. economy. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, many key economic indicators are still showing decline.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the Eurozone:

• Eurozone – ECB President Christine Lagarde speech (09:40 UTC).
• U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls change (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Unemployment rate (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – Average hourly earnings change (12:30 UTC).
• U.S. – ISM Services PMI (14:00 UTC).

On October 3, the economic calendar contains five important events, three of which may not actually be released. Nevertheless, the influence of the news background on market sentiment on Friday could be very strong, depending on how much information becomes available.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:

Sales will be possible after a rebound from the 1.1789–1.1802 zone, with a target at 1.1695. Purchases were possible after a rebound from the 1.1637–1.1645 zone, as well as after a rebound from 1.1695 with a target at 1.1789–1.1802.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.