FX.co ★ Unprecedented BTC withdrawals from exchanges

Even though Bitcoin reached a new all-time high over the weekend, crossing above the $125,700 mark, Swissblock reports record-breaking BTC outflows from exchanges. The last time such a large outflow was observed was in December 2022. However, at that time, Bitcoin was at its bottom near $15,000. Now, the situation is the opposite—it is trading near its all-time high.

This paradox requires deeper analysis. Clearly, Bitcoin holders are not in a rush to take profits despite favorable market conditions. Instead, they see BTC as a long-term asset and prefer to store it off-exchange, in cold wallets. This behavior indicates confidence in further growth. Another possible explanation is the growing adoption of Bitcoin by institutional investors, as seen in continued large inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have been the main driver of the market in recent times. Large players consider Bitcoin a component of a long-term investment portfolio and tend to avoid speculative trading.

Finally, the psychological factor should not be overlooked. Faith in "digital gold" is so strong that even at all-time highs, many investors prefer to hold BTC, expecting even higher prices. This FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) effect may be supporting the uptrend, regardless of objective economic factors.

In any case, the outflow of BTC from exchanges is considered a strong bullish signal and suggests that the rally in cryptocurrency prices may be far from over.

According to Glassnode, the supply of BTC on exchanges has dropped to a six-year low. Back in 2019, a bull rally started from these levels. As mentioned earlier, a declining exchange supply usually signals that investors are less willing to sell their assets, which in turn creates scarcity and drives prices higher. However, in 2019, those indicators appeared after a major correction in BTC. Today, BTC is at its historical peak, and what happens next is unknown. Either way, the observation itself deserves attention.

Trading recommendations:

For the technical picture on Bitcoin, buyers are currently targeting a return to the $125,500 level, which opens a direct path to $127,700. From there, it is only a short distance to $130,200. The furthest target is the area around $131,400—breaking through this level would confirm further strength in the bull market. In case of a decline in Bitcoin, buyers are expected at the $123,000 level. If the instrument falls back below that area, BTC could quickly drop toward the $120,900 zone. The most distant support level is around $119,100.

As for the technical picture on Ethereum, a clear consolidation above $4,616 opens a direct path to $4,697. The furthest upside target is the maximum near $4,784—breaking through this level would confirm continued bullish momentum and renewed interest from buyers. If Ethereum declines, buyers are expected at $4,533. A return of the price below this area could quickly push ETH down to around $4,432. The furthest downside target will be the $4,331 area.

What we see on the chart:

- Red lines indicate support and resistance zones where either a price slowdown or sharp movement is expected;

- Green line represents the 50-day moving average;

- Blue line represents the 100-day moving average;

- Light green line represents the 200-day moving average.

A crossover or price test of these moving averages typically either halts the trend or generates market momentum.