FX.co ★ GBP/USD Forecast on October 9, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday consolidated below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3425 and then rebounded from this level from below. Thus, the decline in quotes continues toward the support level of 1.3332–1.3357. A rebound from this zone would work in favor of the pound and some growth toward the 1.3425 level. Consolidation below this zone will increase the likelihood of continued decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3225.

The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed upward wave did not break the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. The news background in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar, but bullish traders are still not taking advantage of the opportunities to advance. To cancel the "bearish" trend, the pair needs to rise above the 1.3528 level, while bears continue their offensive for now.

On Wednesday, the U.S. published the FOMC minutes, which reflected a "dovish" stance of the regulator. These minutes could have supported the British pound, but they contained no fundamentally new information. Traders are well aware that the FOMC intends to continue monetary policy easing, as evidenced by countless speeches from Fed officials and the latest meeting, where Powell allowed for the possibility of two more rate cuts in 2025. Thus, the current growth of the dollar clearly contradicts the news background. Perhaps Jerome Powell's speech will change something. For the dollar's growth to continue, Powell would need to cast doubt on a rate cut at the next meeting — for example, due to uncertainty related to inflation or the labor market. Recall that the latest reports on these indicators remain unavailable to the market due to the U.S. government shutdown. If Powell signals readiness to continue easing based on the ADP report or independent of economic data, bears may continue their attack.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair returned to the 1.3339–1.3435 zone. A rebound from 1.3339 would again work in favor of the pound and renewed growth toward the Fibonacci level of 127.2% – 1.3795. Consolidation below 1.3339 would allow for expectations of continued decline toward the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.

Commitments of Traders (COT) report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became more "bullish" in the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The gap between longs and shorts now stands at about 85,000 versus 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still has prospects for decline, but with each passing month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. If earlier traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, not knowing what results they might bring, now they may be worried about the consequences of those policies: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new tariffs, Trump's battle against the Fed, as a result of which the regulator may become "politically subordinate" to the White House. Thus, the pound now looks much less dangerous than the U.S. currency.

News calendar for the U.S. and the U.K.:

• U.S. – Speech by FOMC Chair Jerome Powell (12:30 UTC).

On October 9, the economic calendar contains just one, but a very important, event. The impact of the news background on market sentiment Thursday could be strong.

GBP/USD forecast and trader recommendations:

Selling the pair was possible earlier on the rebound from 1.3482, with targets at 1.3425 and 1.3357 on the hourly chart. New sales were possible on closing below 1.3425 with a target of 1.3332–1.3357. Today, selling will be possible if the pair closes below this zone with a target at 1.3225. Buying may be considered on a rebound from the 1.3332–1.3357 zone with a target at 1.3425.

Fibonacci grids are built from 1.3332–1.3725 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.