FX.co ★ New Conflict Between Trump and China — Part 3

It is also worth noting that on November 1, a meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping was scheduled to take place in the United Arab Emirates. The offended U.S. president stated that, following recent events, he was unsure whether meeting with the Chinese leader was necessary. However, he later added that "he will be there anyway." Therefore, I am inclined to believe that the two leaders will hold a personal conversation after all, but the results may not meet the expectations of many optimistic market participants.

Everything Trump is doing in 2025 is aimed solely at generating additional profit and dividends. Trump is willing to cut costs at the expense of his own population and "skin every last dollar" from all trade partners in the form of tariffs—tariffs ultimately paid by Americans themselves. The U.S. president does not care where the money comes from, what means are used to obtain it, or who ends up paying.

America is losing its global dominance, and China is rapidly closing in. Russia, as another U.S. adversary, also shows no willingness to "dance to Washington's tune." It is enough to recall that in one interview, Trump calls Vladimir Putin a friend, while in another, he urges Brussels to join the U.S. in imposing tariffs on India and China for refusing to end oil and gas purchases from Russia.

I am convinced that we are about to witness many more Trump-related developments that will repeatedly shake the entire world. The trade war is not just unresolved—it is intensifying. The world is entering a phase of global confrontation: "everyone against everyone."

Even within the European Union, serious disagreements persist on many issues. For example, Germany, France, and other major nations profess their intention to end purchases of Russian energy resources but continue doing so through third-country hubs. Slovakia and Hungary openly reject proposals to buy oil elsewhere. Hungary consistently blocks various forms of aid to Ukraine, yet has no intention of leaving the EU.

In essence, even among allies, mutual understanding is scarce. And the number of true allies is dwindling rapidly.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

According to the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to form an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news background, particularly the decisions made by Trump, as well as the domestic and foreign policy of the new White House administration. The targets of the current segment of the trend could reach the 1.2500 range. At present, a complex corrective wave 4 is forming and approaching completion. The bullish wave structure remains intact. Therefore, in the near term, I continue to consider only long positions. By year-end, I expect the euro to rise to the level of 1.2245, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci level.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure of GBP/USD has changed. We are still dealing with an upward, impulsive segment of the trend, but its internal wave formation is becoming more complex. Wave 4 is taking the form of a complicated three-wave correction, and its length is significantly greater than that of wave 2. As we are currently observing the formation of a presumed wave within another corrective three-wave pattern, it may soon be completed. If this is confirmed, the upward movement of the instrument within the global wave framework could resume, with initial targets around the 1.3800 and 1.4000 levels..

Core Principles of My Analysis:

1.Wave structures should be simple and easy to understand. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are prone to change.

2.If there is no confidence in the market situation, it is better not to enter the market.

3.One can never have complete certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.

4.Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.