FX.co ★ AUD/USD Forecast for October 16, 2025

AUD/USD

As expected in the previous analysis on October 13, the Australian dollar managed to close the Monday gap and move toward the target support at 0.6450. Now, the price has returned to its initial position and faces the same dilemma: either continue rising toward the MACD line at 0.6555 or attempt to break below the 0.6450 level with firm settlement.

At the moment, the overall trend remains bearish, but price and the oscillator are visually trying to break free from downward pressure. For this, support from correlated markets is needed—namely, a weakening of the U.S. dollar index and a rise in commodity prices. Oil, in particular, has remained in a range for four consecutive days—meaning it has not declined, which is already a positive sign for the "Aussie."

On the four-hour chart, the Marlin oscillator is trying to hold above zero, suggesting the pair is battling toward the immediate target of 0.6532—the MACD line. Growth in AUD/USD appears likely but will come with challenges.