FX.co ★ GBP/USD Forecast for October 16, 2025

GBP/USD

The British pound rose by 82 pips yesterday, reaching the MACD line. Today, the market opened above this line, and the upward movement continued. The signal line of the Marlin oscillator has not yet crossed into positive territory, suggesting the price may pause temporarily to gather momentum for the next push toward the target level at 1.3525 (the high from October 1).

Today, the UK releases a broad set of economic reports. Forecasts are moderately pessimistic:

• GDP (YoY) for August may decline from 1.4% to 1.3%.
• Construction output is expected at -0.1% (MoM).
• Industrial production may fall by -0.6% (YoY).
• The trade balance may slightly improve from -22.24 billion to -21.8 billion pounds.

The MACD line (today's opening level) provides initial support should a correction begin.

On the H4 chart, the price has entered a strong resistance zone from September 29 to October 7. The Marlin oscillator remains high but not yet overbought—meaning a pullback may still occur. Therefore, it is advised to wait for the release of economic data to determine whether the pound can continue its ascent or enter a corrective phase toward 1.3369.