FX.co ★ XAU/USD — Metals Focus Forecasts for 2026

In its annual Precious Metals Investment Focus report, analysts at Metals Focus emphasized that continued global economic instability remains a key factor supporting gold prices in the coming year.

"In our view, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and its implications for the global economy will remain the main driver of gold demand in 2025," the experts noted.

In addition, analysts project strong investment interest from retail investors. Put simply, further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, against the backdrop of rising inflation, makes gold more attractive by reducing its opportunity cost as a non-yielding asset.

"Global risks such as trade tensions, inflationary threats, and fragile confidence in currencies should continue to support safe-haven demand. At the same time, domestic fiscal challenges and doubts about the Fed's independence are undermining the dollar's appeal. Even if rate cuts are less aggressive than markets expect, lower real yields, geopolitical tensions, and continued official-sector gold purchases are likely to push prices to new record highs," the report stated.

The British research firm forecasts that in 2025, the average gold price will reach around $4,560 per ounce, up 33% from the average at the start of the current year. According to the report, despite the growing wave of investments, current inflows into the gold market still lag far behind post-2008 crisis levels, suggesting significant potential for further inflows, especially in the medium- and long-term horizons.

Beyond gold, Metals Focus expressed strong confidence in the outlook for silver, predicting prices to rise to $60 per ounce next year, with an average annual price around $57. "Although we expect silver to lead initially, and the gold-to-silver ratio to decline, later on the trend will reverse — gold will once again become the dominant asset in these categories," the experts explained.

Industrial demand will continue to play a crucial role in shaping silver prices through 2026. Despite efforts by companies to reduce metal usage due to record-high prices, the market will likely adapt with a delay. "While steps are already being taken to lower silver consumption, the industry will need time to retool. Some of the decline in demand can be offset by steady investment purchases, particularly in bullion and coin segments, which are expected to grow next year amid active buying in India," analysts added.

Moreover, Metals Focus pointed to supply challenges in the silver market caused by strong investment activity. Last year, tariff threats from Trump triggered a mass inflow of metal into New York warehouses, which led to shortages in the UK market. Rapidly growing Indian demand and strong export flows have pushed London silver inventories to their lowest levels, contributing to a premium in spot prices over CME futures. Additionally, open interest in silver contracts has reached record highs.

In conclusion, the analysts noted that in the short term, physical liquidity in the London silver market will remain tight due to high demand, structural supply deficits, and political uncertainty, all of which are keeping U.S. silver inventories constrained.