FX.co ★ How Long Will the American "Shutdown" Last? Part 2

As I mentioned in the previous review, the majority of Americans blame the Republicans and Donald Trump personally for the "shutdown." Many people in the US are currently opposing Trump and his policies. It suffices to recall the "No Kings" rallies, occurring roughly every two months, which clearly hint that someone fancies themselves a king. Therefore, it comes as no surprise to me that about 46% of Americans blame Trump for the "shutdown," while only 37% blame the Democrats. Consequently, the Democrats' position in negotiations is more advantageous than the Republicans'.

The absolute majority of respondents have also reported being very concerned about the "shutdown." But what is the fuss really about? The Republican Party, led by Trump, demands that the Democrats approve a funding bill, and only then promises to consider all the claims from their opponents. The Democratic Party does not trust Trump and requires the extension of medical and social programs that "One Big, Beautiful Bill" significantly cuts back. The situation is almost a deadlock. Trump is unwilling to make concessions due to principle, while the Democrats see no reason to compromise. A funding law requires support from 60 senators, but Republicans only have 53 votes in the upper chamber.

It is also noted that the Trump administration has used the "shutdown" to expand its powers regarding government spending. This works similarly to declaring a state of emergency, which Trump actively used in the first half of 2025 to impose tariffs on imports against any country. According to Trump, structural problems in US trade have been developing for decades, resulting in annual budget deficits and a negative trade balance. Indeed, everyone has their own definition of a crisis; for Trump, a budget deficit is precisely that.

As a result of the "shutdown," starting November 1, the assistance program to combat hunger has been halted, leaving 42 million Americans without government help for their most basic human need—food. In my opinion, the Republicans have shot themselves in the foot with the "shutdown." They will not remain in power forever, and next year marks the midterm elections in Parliament.

Wave Analysis of EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, the instrument continues to build an upward trend section. Currently, the market is in a pause, but Donald Trump's policies and the Fed's remain significant factors in the future decline of the American currency. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. We are currently observing the construction of corrective wave 4, which takes on a very complex and elongated appearance. Therefore, in the near future, I still consider only buys, as any downward structures are corrective. The latest structure – a-b-c-d-e may be nearing its completion.

Wave Analysis of GBP/USD:

The wave pattern of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. We continue to deal with an upward, impulsive section of the trend, but its internal wave structure is becoming more complex. Wave 4 takes on a three-wave appearance, and its structure is significantly more elongated than that of wave 2. Another downward corrective structure is close to completion. I continue to expect the main wave structure to resume its development, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels, and I believe this could occur as early as the beginning of November.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures must be simple and comprehensible. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If there is no confidence in market movements, it is better not to enter the market.
3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in directional movements, and there never can be. Always remember to use protective stop-loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.