FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders for November 5th (U.S. Session)

Analysis of trades and advice on trading the Japanese yen

The test of the 153.75 price occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar.

Given that strong demand for the Japanese yen has still not returned, despite all the warnings from Japan's Ministry of Finance, volatility may spike in the second half of the day. The market awaits the release of U.S. ISM Services PMI, S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. Composite PMI, and the ADP employment report. The ISM index, in particular, serves as an indicator of the health of the services sector, which plays a major role in shaping U.S. GDP. A reading above 50 indicates growth, while a reading below 50 signals contraction in business activity. A high figure will likely lead to an increase in the USD/JPY pair.

Meanwhile, although the ADP employment data are not official government statistics, they provide an early estimate of changes in the labor market. Investors usually monitor these figures closely, as they can foreshadow the results of the official employment report released later. Any deviation from forecasts may trigger significant volatility in the currency market.

As for the intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the 153.88 entry point (green line on the chart), targeting growth toward 154.46 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 154.46, I plan to exit long positions and open short ones in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35-point retracement from that level. An upward movement in the pair can be expected only after strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.51 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward 153.88 and 154.46 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks below the 153.51 level (red line on the chart), which should trigger a quick decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 152.92, where I plan to close sell positions and immediately open buys in the opposite direction, expecting a 20–25-point retracement from that level. Downward pressure on the pair may return today if U.S. labor market data are weak.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 153.88 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline toward 153.51 and 152.92 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – projected price where a Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – projected price where a Take Profit can be placed or profits can be fixed manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important Note

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very cautiously. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp price movements. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember: for successful trading, you must have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is, from the start, a losing strategy for intraday traders.