FX.co ★ GBP/USD Forecast on November 19, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued trading within the horizontal channel of 1.3110–1.3186 on Tuesday. Today, a new rebound of quotes from the 161.8% retracement level at 1.3110 will work in favor of some growth toward the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3186. A rebound from 1.3186 will favor a slight decline toward 1.3110. One can count on continued growth only after the quotes consolidate above the 1.3186 level.

The wave situation remains "bearish." The new upward wave has not yet broken the previous peak, while the last downward wave (which formed over three weeks) broke the previous low. The fundamental backdrop in recent weeks has been negative for the U.S. dollar (in my opinion), but bullish traders did not take advantage of these opportunities to advance. Unfortunately for the pound, the news background has worsened recently, and now bulls are also struggling to launch attacks. To end the "bearish" trend, growth above 1.3470 or the formation of two consecutive "bullish" waves is required.

For eight consecutive days, the pound has remained between the 1.3110 and 1.3186 levels. The pound is holding on to its reclaimed positions with difficulty, but last week showed that traders are now somewhat more inclined toward buying than selling. Thus, today may help traders determine their next strategy. Today, the UK inflation report will be released, but I am not interested in the report itself as much as whether it can strongly support the bulls or the bears. Recall that last week the UK also had several important reports, but none of them affected the sideways movement. This was very strange, since bears had been attacking recently, and nearly all economic data came in weaker than market expectations. Therefore, today's inflation report can be of any value — what matters is that the price exits the horizontal channel. This may not happen immediately after the report but during the day.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to decline within the descending trend channel. If a new "bullish" trend is beginning now, we will gradually receive confirmations of this. I will begin counting on strong growth of the pound after quotes close above the channel. Consolidation below the 76.4% retracement level at 1.3118 will once again allow anticipation of a decline toward the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2925. No emerging divergences are observed today.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more "bullish" during the last reporting week, but that reporting week was one and a half months ago. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 3,704, while the number of short positions decreased by 912. The current gap between long and short positions is essentially as follows: 85,000 versus 86,000. Bullish traders are once again tipping the scales in their favor.

In my view, the pound still has prospects for decline, but with each new month the U.S. dollar looks weaker and weaker. Previously, traders worried about Donald Trump's protectionist policies, without understanding what results they might bring; now they may be worried about the consequences of these policies: a possible recession, the constant introduction of new and additional tariffs, and Trump's conflict with the Federal Reserve, as a result of which the regulator may become "politically biased." Thus, the pound looks much less dangerous than the U.S. currency.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• UK – Consumer Price Index (07:00 UTC).
• U.S. – FOMC Meeting Minutes (19:00 UTC).

On November 19, the economic calendar contains at least one important entry — inflation. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be strong.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Recommendations:

Selling the pair is possible today if quotes close below 1.3110 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3024, or after a rebound from 1.3186 with a target of 1.3110. Purchases can be opened after a rebound from 1.3110 with a target of 1.3186, or after closing above 1.3186 with a target of 1.3247.

The Fibonacci grids are built between 1.3247–1.3470 on the hourly chart and 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.