FX.co ★ What to Pay Attention to on November 20? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are only a few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday, but this data could trigger a "bombshell" in the currency market. Today, the Non-Farm Payrolls and unemployment rate for September will be released, and although this data is frankly outdated, there is no doubt the market will react to it with double strength. We continue to observe that when the euro or pound begins to rise, it lasts for only a very short time, and these currencies rise very reluctantly. On the other hand, when the dollar starts to rise, it cannot be considered strong either, but it is more confident than the growth of the euro or the pound. The market continues to favor the U.S. currency, despite there being very few reasons for it.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

A few fundamental events are scheduled for Thursday. Additional speeches from FOMC representatives Harker, Goolsbee, and Cook will take place. However, we are already 100% familiar with the Federal Reserve's monetary committee's position on the key rate. They aim to keep the rate unchanged in December, but the final decision will be made after the labor market and unemployment data for September, October, and November, as well as inflation data for at least October, are available. Thus, speculating about what decision the Fed might make on December 10 will not be possible until early December.

General Conclusions:

On the penultimate trading day of the week, both currency pairs could show any movements, as the macroeconomic backdrop will be very strong today. The euro has a great trading area at 1.1527-1.1531. The British pound at 1.3043. However, good technical signals may form in the first half of the day, while in the second half, both pairs may move in opposite directions, disregarding technical analysis.

Key Principles of My Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is considered based on the time taken to form the signal (bounce or breach of a level). The less time taken, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades have been opened around a certain level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can create numerous false signals or may not form them at all. In any case, it's best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trading deals are opened during the period between the start of the European session and the middle of the American session, after which all deals should be closed manually.
5. On the hourly timeframe, it is preferable to trade based on signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trend line or trend channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (between 5 and 20 pips), they should be treated as an area of support or resistance.
7. After a 15-20-pip move in the right direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What the Charts Show:

• Support and resistance price levels are targets for opening buy or sell positions. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate trend channels or trend lines, reflecting the current trend and indicating the preferred trading direction.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) — histogram and signal line — is a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important announcements and reports (always available in the news calendar) can significantly impact the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is recommended to trade with maximum caution or to exit the market to avoid sharp reversals against the preceding movement.

Beginners trading on the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and money management is key to long-term success in trading.