FX.co ★ XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold is maintaining a positive intraday bias. The shift in global risk sentiment is triggering capital flows into traditional safe-haven assets, providing support to commodities ahead of the U.S.–Iran nuclear talks. In addition, expectations of continued interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2026—confirmed by signs of cooling in the U.S. labor market—are acting as additional drivers supporting gold.

This is being reinforced by moderate selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, which further pushes precious metal prices higher. At the same time, the White House emphasized that diplomacy remains U.S. President Donald Trump's preferred approach to the Iranian issue, while also noting the existence of military alternatives. This keeps geopolitical tensions elevated and strengthens gold's role as a safe haven. However, speculation that the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, may take a less dovish stance could slow the precious metal's advance, prompting optimistic traders to remain cautious.

Nevertheless, prospects of Fed policy easing have helped gold reverse its Asian-session decline on Friday and return close to the round 5,000 level.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, market participants are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026. These expectations are supported by U.S. economic data released this week, which showed signs of weakness in the labor market.

The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report on Wednesday showed that private employers added 22,000 jobs in January—significantly fewer than the revised 37,000 in the previous month and below expectations of 48,000.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), released on Thursday, showed 6.542 million job openings at the end of December, down from a revised 6.928 million previously.

The U.S. Department of Labor also reported an increase in initial jobless claims to 231,000 for the week ending January 31, up from 209,000 the previous week and above the forecast of 212,000.

From a technical perspective, gold has shown resilience below the 4,700 level, and after recovering nearly 90% of yesterday's decline during the day, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive, confirming a bullish outlook.