FX.co ★ GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

The GBP/USD pair begins the new week in a moderately restrained mode, trading within a narrow range just below the 1.3660 level. The overall fundamental background remains mixed, suggesting a more cautious approach by aggressive market participants, as important economic data from the UK and the U.S. will be released this week.

On Tuesday, UK labor market data will be published, followed on Wednesday by the latest consumer inflation report. These releases will shape expectations regarding the future path of the Bank of England's monetary policy, amid forecasts of a 25-basis-point rate cut in March. Accordingly, the results may become a key driver for the movement of the British pound.

In addition, attention should be paid to the minutes of the latest FOMC meeting, to be released on Wednesday, which may provide clearer signals about the future cycle of Federal Reserve policy easing. This could generate a new impulse for both the U.S. dollar and short-term fluctuations in GBP/USD.

Toward the end of the week, interest will focus on the UK's monthly retail sales data, as well as preliminary PMI business activity indices in the UK and the U.S., potentially creating additional short-term trading opportunities in the second half of the week.

Last week, weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation data increased the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. At the same time, the market is pricing in at least two rate cuts in 2026. Combined with concerns about central bank independence and prevailing bullish sentiment toward risk assets, this puts pressure on the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset.

An additional supportive factor for GBP/USD is the easing of political tensions in the UK, which limits the potential for aggressive short positions and calls for caution when trading on the downside or preparing for larger-scale sell-offs. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer retained political backing by securing support from the cabinet and Labour Party MPs amid the scandal related to the Jeffrey Epstein case, which led to the resignation of Morgan McSweeney as chief of staff.

From a technical perspective, the pair is attempting to break above three moving averages and the 1.3660 level. The next resistance stands at 1.3700. Only after overcoming this level will the bulls gain confidence, despite the fact that daily oscillators are currently positive and the path of least resistance remains upward. If the bulls fail to break these levels, the pair will likely return to the round level of 1.3600.