FX.co ★ What to Pay Attention to on February 19? Analysis of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Thursday. Essentially, the only noteworthy report concerns US unemployment claims. It is important to remember that, in February, traders had already received all the key data on the state of the US labor market. And this data proved to be highly contradictory. For example, the JOLTs and ADP reports significantly underperformed. The unemployment report indicated a decline, while the NonFarm Payrolls report showed a decent figure for January but a dreadful overall figure for 2025. Therefore, we would refrain from concluding that the labor market is recovering. A very important point is where and when this recovery will begin. Over the entire year of 2025, only 180,000 jobs were created in the American economy.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among the fundamental events on Thursday, we can highlight speeches from representatives of the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve, including Luis de Guindos, Michelle Bowman, Raphael Bostic, and Neel Kashkari. After the US labor market, unemployment, and inflation data were released, changes in the rhetoric of the Fed's Monetary Committee members can be expected; however, the first speeches from officials indicated a continued "neutral" stance. We believe the Fed's stance may shift toward a more "dovish" approach soon, as US inflation is approaching 2%. However, inflation must continue to decelerate, rather than just remain at 2.4%. As for the ECB, the latest inflation report showed a slowdown to 1.7%. If this figure continues to decelerate, the ECB will be forced to resort to further monetary policy easing, although Christine Lagarde is currently rejecting such a scenario.

General Conclusions:

During the penultimate trading day of the week, the market may experience relative calm and low volatility. The euro can be traded today from the areas of 1.1830-1.1831 and 1.1745-1.1754, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3484-1.3489. There are still no grounds for significant and prolonged growth of the American currency, but the trends for both currency pairs are currently downward.

Main Rules of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
4. Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
5. On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
7. After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.

What's on the Charts:

• Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
• Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
• The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
• Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
• Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.