FX.co ★ USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on March 30th (U.S. Session)

Trade Analysis and Advice on Trading the Japanese Yen

The price test at 159.79 occurred when the MACD indicator had just started moving up from the zero line, confirming the correct entry point to buy the dollar. However, the trade recorded a loss, as further growth of the pair did not occur. Some time later, the price tested 159.67, coinciding with the start of the MACD moving down from zero, which resulted in a 15-point decline in the dollar.

In the second half of the day, no new macroeconomic data from the U.S. is expected, so all traders' attention will focus on statements by Donald Trump regarding the Middle East, as well as the speech of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The market will closely watch for any hints about the future trajectory of monetary policy. Special attention will be given to statements regarding inflation expectations and the Fed's readiness to act if the military conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalates. If Powell's rhetoric is aimed at a strict fight against inflation, this could cause a flow of funds out of riskier assets, such as the yen, in favor of the dollar, leading to a new wave of USD/JPY growth, even despite the morning efforts of Bank of Japan officials to curb the yen's depreciation.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today if the entry point reaches around 159.70 (green line on the chart), with a target of 159.99 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 159.99, I plan to exit long positions and open sales in the opposite direction (aiming for a 30–35 point move from this level). Growth of the pair today can be expected in case of a hawkish Fed stance. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above zero and has just started rising from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.48 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.70 and 159.99 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks 159.48 (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline of the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.18, where I plan to exit sales and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 point move from this level). Pressure on the pair could quickly ease today. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below zero and has just started declining from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if the price tests 159.70 twice consecutively while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.48 and 159.18 can be expected.

What the Chart Shows:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – approximate price for setting Take Profit or manually locking in profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders need to be very cautious when entering the market. Before major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.