FX.co ★ XAU/USD Price Analysis and Forecast: Gold May Accelerate Its Corrective Decline

On the 4-hour chart of XAU/USD, Friday's breakout above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) was a key bullish signal. Technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at around 63 and a positive MACD reading confirm that upward momentum remains in place despite the current consolidation phase.

If the price falls below the 100-period SMA near $4,144, initial support may be found around the 14-period EMA at approximately $4,132, followed by $4,122, and then the psychological level of $4,100. A break below this level could open the way toward lower targets, including the July low at $3,940.

Immediate resistance is located at the psychological level of $4,200, followed by $4,216. Key resistance is seen at $4,265, where the 200-period EMA is located, and at $4,295, where the 200-period SMA is positioned. A higher bullish extension zone is defined around $4,500 and $4,630, where the 100-day SMA is located. Beyond that, bulls may retest the April high near the psychological level of $4,900.

However, it is important to note that on the daily chart, oscillators have not yet moved into positive territory, indicating that bears still retain the advantage. Therefore, bulls should wait for U.S. economic data releases, including the ISM Services PMI. In addition, speeches from influential FOMC members may support U.S. dollar demand during the North American session, potentially providing new momentum for the precious metal.