FX.co ★ Bitcoin raises questions as it falls for fourth straight session

Bitcoin is down for a fourth consecutive trading session, sliding as much as 2.2% today to $76,563, and the uneasy backdrop for risk assets is making it harder to sustain upward momentum.

Escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil above $105/bbl this week, hurting investors who had been betting on imminent Fed easing — higher energy prices weigh on equities and bonds while feeding inflation expectations that the central bank will find harder to dismiss. That is why the latest Producer Price Index, which showed a 0.4% monthly increase in August and 5.4% year-on-year, accelerated Thursday's sell-off rather than being ignored.

The current pullback remains within Bitcoin's usual wide trading range rather than signaling a new structural breakdown: the asset has traded roughly between $60,000 and $80,000 since early February, well below the October record near $126,000. Still, repeated failed attempts to hold above $80,000 show how difficult it has been for the recent recovery to continue amid uneven demand from US investors.

Let me remind you that Bitcoin's sharp late-August surge triggered a record wave of short-liquidation activity in perpetual futures, and the asset has since been retracing from that rally. Part of the present weakness therefore reflects the natural fading of the short-squeeze effect that powered the prior move, rather than fresh fundamental bad news.

Today market attention is on the Consumer Price Index, which is expected to show relatively moderate core inflation in the US despite the rise in gasoline prices pushing the headline higher. Several Fed officials have indicated that the September 15–16 rate decision could depend directly on that report. In my view, CPI is the real test for the market: the combination of expensive oil and persistent core inflation could finally tip the scales toward a hawkish Fed decision, whereas softer figures would give Bitcoin another chance to challenge the multi-month resistance around $80,000.

Trading recommendations

Bitcoin

Buyers are currently targeting a return to $78,500, which would open a direct path to $80,200 and then to $81,900; clearing $81,900 would signal attempts to resume a bull market. On the downside, I expect buyers around $77,200. A move back below that area could quickly push BTC toward $75,300. The furthest downside target is around $72,800.

Ethereum

A clear hold above $2,501 opens a direct path to $2,573. The furthest upside target is the high near $2,624; breaking above that would indicate strengthening bullish sentiment and renewed buyer interest. On the downside, I expect buyers around $2,444. A drop back below that area could quickly push ETH toward $2,385. The furthest downside target is around $2,320.

What's on the chart

• The red lines represent support and resistance levels, where the price is expected to either pause or react sharply.
• The green line shows the 50-day moving average.
• The blue line is the 100-day moving average.
• The lime line is the 200-day moving average.

Price testing or crossing any of these moving averages often either halts movement or injects fresh momentum into the market.