FX.co ★ Powell faces difficult choice concerning key rate cut

Is the Federal Reserve ready to cut interest rates? The whole world watched the regulator’s actions with bated breath! Many analysts and market participants were catching even the slightest signals from the agency. However, the signals have been insignificant so far.

In his long-awaited speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell, the head of the regulator, noted that current conditions may justify a reduction in interest rates. However, he refrained from clarifying any details.

At the same time, Powell pointed out radical changes in US tax, trade, and immigration policy. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting between the Fed's twin goals of full employment and stable prices,” the chairman said.

Noting that the US labor market remains in good condition and the economy demonstrates resilience, Powell has stated that the risks of a downturn are increasing. Against this backdrop, the tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump are creating new inflation risks. If this scenario unfolds, stagflation could ensue. This is something the Federal Reserve is striving to prevent.

In his Jackson Hole speech, Powell also emphasized the importance of the Federal Reserve’s independence.

The regulator’s remarks affected the markets. Even vague hints of a possible rate cut were enough to trigger a surge in stock prices and a drop in Treasury yields. As for the Dow Jones index, it rose by more than 600 points and set a new record.