FX.co ★ Tesla's Q3 boom could be temporary, Barclays warns

Tesla Inc. is navigating a challenging period as demand for electric vehicles shows signs of softening, casting a shadow over the company’s mid-term outlook. Nevertheless, Barclays analysts anticipate strong third-quarter results for Elon Musk’s automaker—though they caution that this performance may be short-lived.

According to Barclays, Tesla could outperform profit expectations in the third quarter, driven largely by front-loaded purchases ahead of expiring US tax incentives and optimism around its robotaxi initiatives. The firm projects quarterly deliveries of 465,000 vehicles, notably above the consensus estimate of 430,000, with US sales providing significant momentum.

However, this pull-forward in demand is expected to weaken results in the fourth quarter, leading to a notable slowdown in US EV sales. Despite the projected rise in the third quarter, Barclays maintained its 2025 delivery forecast of 1.6 million vehicles, representing a 10% year-on-year decline.

Regional performance remains mixed: sales in China are gradually recovering but remain below prior-year levels, while deliveries in Europe have been dampened by consumer boycotts and reputational damage linked to Musk’s recent political activities.

In contrast, Tesla’s US sales are projected to grow 9% year-on-year in the third quarter, fueled by incentive-driven demand. Other global markets, including South Korea and Turkey, also showed record deliveries, largely attributable to pent-up demand for the updated Model Y.

Barclays’ currency strategists estimate Q3 production of around 445,000 units, which would reduce inventory by nearly 20,000 vehicles. Still, analysts emphasize that Tesla’s current momentum is driven by transient factors rather than sustained demand, and warn of a likely deterioration in EV sales in the near term.