FX.co ★ China’s economy holding up surprisingly well despite Trump’s tariffs

Tariffs have startled financial markets. ING analysts, in their THINK Ahead report, noted that Trump’s threat to slap 100% tariffs on China is injecting a fresh shot of adrenaline into the looming recession.

"The vibe is off. Everyone’s silently panicking, and that’s what’s feeding the recession,” ING experts commented on the tense nerves of regional banks. Meanwhile, gold is acting like a rock star on stage: untouchable and unstoppable.

ING estimates that the average US tariff rate could soar to 31%, surpassing "Liberation Day” levels. In reality, it means that importing goods could soon feel like an extreme sport.

Interestingly, markets have actually responded to Trump’s threats this time. All previous tariff announcements were neglected by markets. A red-hot set of economic data amazed experts. Lynn Song from ING noted that China has proven remarkable resilience in the face of Trump’s tariffs: demand from other countries has stepped in to replace declining US orders, and export-focused sectors are now trading like luxury items from limited collections.

ING economists expect that the inflationary effects of the current tariff regime will be “lower, but more prolonged.” They warn that a new round of inflation is inevitable, especially in the car manufacturing industry. Even if the tariffs are acknowledged as illegal, the White House still has leverage to introduce lower tariffs according to section 122.