FX.co ★ Mexico Trade Gap Surges Past Forecasts

Mexico recorded a trade deficit of $6.48 billion in January 2026, widening from $5.21 billion in the same month a year earlier and significantly exceeding market expectations of a $2.20 billion gap.

Total merchandise imports reached $54.49 billion, a 9.8% year-over-year increase. This growth was led by intermediate goods, which rose 14.2% to $43.12 billion, driven in particular by a 16.5% jump in non-petroleum intermediate imports. By contrast, capital goods imports fell 4.4% to $4.38 billion, and consumer goods imports declined 3.8% to $6.99 billion, weighed down by a steep 35.2% drop in petroleum consumer goods.

Merchandise exports stood at $48.01 billion, up 8.1% from a year earlier. This was supported by a 9.8% increase in non-oil exports, which more than offset a 33.5% slump in oil exports. Non-oil shipments to the United States rose 7.9%, while exports to the rest of the world surged 19.6%.

Exports of manufactured goods climbed 9.4% to $43.51 billion. Within this category, however, automotive exports contracted 9.0%, reflecting a 16.7% decline in shipments to the US market. Agricultural and fishing exports came in at $1.85 billion, down 11.6% year-over-year.