FX.co ★ Soybeans Fall on Higher US Supply Outlook

Soybean futures slipped below $12.90 per bushel, hitting a one-week low after the USDA’s latest report signaled a more ample US supply outlook for the 2026/27 marketing year. The agency raised its national average yield estimate to 53.1 bushels per acre from 52.8 in September, pushing projected production up to 4.56 billion bushels from 4.535 billion. US ending stocks were also revised higher, to 315 million bushels from 310 million, reinforcing expectations of comfortable supplies.

The USDA did, however, lift its export projection by 10 million bushels, partially tempering the bearish tone, while maintaining its season-average farm price estimate at $12.00 per bushel.

In contrast, China’s Ministry of Agriculture trimmed its 2026/27 soybean output forecast by 590,000 tonnes to 20.36 million tonnes in its October outlook, citing smaller-than-expected planted area and weaker yields. The downward revision, combined with higher production costs and rising global prices, helped underpin new-crop soybean prices in China.