FX.co ★ MMC | EUR/USD

EURUSD Analysis The EUR/USD pair is trading in an uptrend after attempting to break out of the current decline and move beyond the downtrend. Recent moves towards this wedge edge indicate increasing strength, but resistance remains strong near the 1.0560 level. If buyers can push the pair above this resistance level, strong supply will emerge and the 1.0600 and 1.0675 levels will become further downside targets. However, if the breakout fails to hold, a correction to the lower boundary of the wedge near the 1.0430 mark is possible, the decline could continue and, potentially, the 1.0350 level will be tested. Bollinger Bands show the price approaching the upper band and may indicate oversold conditions in the short term. The RSI is currently at 58.13, indicating moderately strong momentum, but still below the overbought level. The stochastic indicator is giving mixed signals around the 67.30 level, indicating that there is still room for movement before reaching a peak. This means that there may be a short-term consolidation between them before a decisive move in either direction. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve policy meeting. In December, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, maintaining high interest rate expectations and presenting a bright outlook for 2025. Dove Powell’s stance is well understood, but any hint or surprise regarding the expected rate cut could lead to a decline in the dollar and a rise in the EUR/USD exchange rate. On the other hand, if the minutes confirm that the Fed will take a more hawkish stance, a rise in the US dollar could lead to selling pressure and push the EUR/USD pair towards key support areas. Friday’s non-farm payrolls data will also play a key role in determining the future direction of the currency pair. If the employment data surprises, the market could pick up momentum to offset further price weakness and push EUR/USD above 1.0560. However, news of rising expectations could reinforce pessimistic conditions and create additional downward pressure. If the pair breaks below 1.0430, the 1.0200 support zone will be clearly visible, a break below this level could take the pair down to 1.0155, putting the pair back in the spotlight. The currency pair is expected to trade near key resistance levels, with volatility increasing as a dangerous event approaches. A clear breach of the 1.0560 level is expected to further strengthen the bullish trend in the stock. On the other hand, if this level is not broken, the EUR/USD pair may face additional pressure from sellers. Changes in the central bank's outlook can have a significant impact on the dynamics of currency pairs, so investors should keep a close eye on future economic data.