FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has been showing strong resilience this week, maintaining its upward trajectory despite brief corrective phases. The fourth trading day of the week is closing with USD/JPY still trading confidently above the 9% Fibonacci retracement resistance on the four-hour chart, where buyers have clearly established dominance. The pair corrected earlier in the week but quickly transitioned into a steady upward movement, reflecting renewed buying pressure. This continuation of bullish sentiment indicates that USD/JPY is poised to test the recent high, and logically, the pair should rally further rather than reverse from its current position. The inability of the pair to pull back as expected highlights the strength of the ongoing trend. Despite modest daily gains, USD/JPY remains firmly within an uptrend, as confirmed by its consistent formation of higher highs. Resistance at 152.43, which previously appeared formidable, was decisively broken, with USD/JPY now trading around 152.79. This breakout underscores the underlying strength of the pair, even though upward momentum seems to be slowing slightly before the next potential leg higher toward the 153.02–153.26 resistance zone. While selling USD/JPY may seem tempting at these elevated levels, it remains a risky endeavor without a confirmed reversal signal or a firm test of the 153 figure.

On the daily timeframe, USD/JPY shows a broader pattern of sustained growth following a prolonged consolidation phase in September and early October. The MACD indicator on the daily chart hovers near the zero line, reflecting a period of equilibrium before the recent breakout, while the CCI remains neutral, suggesting room for further upside without overbought pressure. Strong weekly support at 146.59, repeatedly tested over the past months, has proven resilient and now serves as the foundation for the pair’s current bullish phase. The false breakout below this support likely triggered stop orders from weaker long positions, clearing the way for institutional buying and the subsequent rally. USD/JPY has since rebounded sharply, breaking through key levels at 148.92 and 150.98, confirming renewed upward momentum. Although the pair’s rapid ascent earlier in the week suggested the need for a technical pullback, the correction to the support zone was shallow, further validating the strength of the bullish structure. On shorter timeframes, USD/JPY continues to form bullish patterns, supported by the MACD histogram crossing into positive territory and the moving average turning upward. With the yen weakening fundamentally and the dollar holding steady ahead of U.S. inflation data, USD/JPY is likely to maintain its bullish bias in the near term. The next key objective lies at 153.70, where the stop-loss clusters of sellers are expected to be tested. Unless unforeseen macroeconomic surprises emerge, the path of least resistance for USD/JPY remains upward, signaling that buyers are still in control of the market.