FX.co ★ FX-Perfact | NZD/USD

NZD/USD H4 Timeframe: On the H4 chart, the NZD/USD pair's movement indicates a relatively strong bearish trend in the medium term. The price remains below two major moving averages, the 100-day moving average (MA) (blue) and the 200-day moving average (MA) (red), both of which are trending downward with a consistent downward slope. This indicates that seller dominance has not yet fully weakened, although signs of consolidation and a potential technical correction have emerged in recent sessions. The price is currently hovering around 0.5753, which is also approaching the dynamic resistance area of the 100-day moving average (MA). If the price successfully breaks through and maintains above this area, there is an opportunity for short-term upside towards the next resistance level at 0.5843. However, if it fails to break through, selling pressure could increase again and push the price to continue its downtrend.

In terms of price structure, the NZD/USD pair has previously formed a lower low and lower high pattern, characteristic of a bearish trend. The nearest support area is around 0.5677, which was the lower limit of the price movement in mid-October. If the price weakens again and breaks through this area, the potential for a continuation of the downtrend towards the psychological level of 0.5600 will increase. However, there are early indications that buyers are starting to show buying interest in the lower area, as evidenced by a series of candles with relatively long lower tails, indicating buying pressure preventing further declines. This could be an early signal of a potential short-term reversal pattern, especially if the price manages to close above 0.5760–0.5770. Overall, the NZD/USD technical bias remains bearish as long as the price is unable to break through and maintain above the resistance area of 0.5843 or the 200-day moving average (MA) in the 0.5800–0.5820 range. The best scenario for buyers is to wait for confirmation of a breakout above these levels as a sign of a stronger trend reversal. Conversely, as long as the price remains below this dynamic resistance area, any increase is likely to be a retracement before further weakening.