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Technical analysis 25 October 2025 EUR/USD H-1

The bullish momentum from the breakout above 1.1628 has stalled, and the price has pulled back to retest this exact level. This is a classic "breakout and retest" pattern. The 1.1628 line, which was formerly strong resistance, is now being tested as new support. Key Observations: * Support Retest: The price is currently trading at 1.1627, sitting directly on the 1.1628 support line. The markets next move depends entirely on whether this level holds. * Waning Momentum (MACD): The MACD histogram is still above the zero line (technically bullish), but the bars have shrunk significantly. This indicates that the initial buying momentum from the breakout has faded, and the market is in a period of consolidation or indecision. * Parabolic SAR: The red dots are still below the price, which maintains the technical "buy" signal from yesterday. However, the dots are getting closer to the price, reflecting the current stall. * Moving Average: The price remains above the black moving average line, which is now acting as a secondary layer of support just below the 1.1628 pivot level. * Gator Oscillator: The oscillator is still "green," suggesting the trend is technically still active, but the weakening bars mirror the MACDs signal of a pause. Conclusion & Scenarios: The outlook has shifted from "strongly bullish" to "cautiously bullish," pending the outcome of this retest. The 1.1628 level is the new pivot point. * Bullish Scenario (Confirmation): If the price finds support at 1.1628 and bounces (forms a bullish candle, pin bar, etc.), it would confirm the breakout. This would be a strong signal for a continuation of the uptrend, with the 1.1730 area as the next likely target. * Bearish Scenario (Invalidation): If the price fails to hold 1.1628 and breaks decisively back below it (and the black moving average), this would be a "fake breakout" or "fakeout." This is a bearish signal that would invalidate the recent buy signals and likely send the price back down into its previous trading range.