FX.co ★ Wiking | AUD/JPY

AUDJPY Daily Analysis The AUD/JPY daily of the pair clearly shows the medium-term bullish structure has become more robust, particularly after a deep pullback corrective agile lower on March 26, 2025, around 94.000 Upon forming this bottom, price embarked on a uniform rising trend, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, which sustained bullishness throughout the second and third quarters of 2025. The initial significant rally took prices to 96.800 by 24 April 2025, breaching earlier resistance and establishing confirmation of a change in market sentiment. This came after a corrective pullback to 95.500 on 2 May, which served as a retest of the forming rising trendline, preserving the structural integrity of the bullish phase. As the trend formed, buyers kept on entering near the trendline, causing a second strong impulse from early Jun 2025. The pair hit a peak of approximately 99.000 by 16 Jul 2025, which was an important resistance level tested various times during the last year. This peak was a short-term point of exhaustion, triggering a period of consolidation up to late Aug and Jul. Throughout the period, price fluctuated between 97.000 and 99.000 in a contracting symmetrical formation. The March lows trendline was still intact, offering dynamic support and reinforcing that the overall bullish structure was still in place. Finally, in early September of 2025, the pair rose from 97.200 on September 5 to 100.910 on September 24, which is a new yearly high, thereby expanding the bullish leg. This level was the 100.0 Fibonacci projection level on the chart. The rally was impulsive, complete with several long-bodied bullish candles verifying strong momentum, but by late September, conditions became overextended as oscillators moved into overbought zones. MACD histogram began to flatten and RSI readings above 70 signaled potential exhaustion. Thereafter, a corrective fall started, with the price dropping sharply from the high of 100.910 to the level of 96.735 by 10 October 2025, and lying very close to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement zone. The low of 96.735 on 10 October proved to be a structural point of significance. Price reversed from there decisively, with bullish candles appearing from 13 October onwards. Recovery saw the pair retake its position above the 98.500 level, and as of 21 October, AUD/JPY had broken out above the 50% retracement level, closing close to 99.000. The price action now around 99.550 indicates that the buyers are trying to maintain momentum at the vicinity of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, which is also in line with short-term resistance levels. This region at 99.550–99.600 is technically noteworthy, since a daily close here above could unlock the way for another push towards the 100.910 high, and a failure here might encourage fresh consolidation towards the trendline support. The up trending trendline that broke out from the March 2025 low has been tested repeatedly, such as on 24 April, 2 May, 10 June, and most recently at 96.800 on 10 October, solidifying it as a good long-term support mechanism. So long as price remains above this rising trendline, the bullish setup is intact. There is positive buying sentiment on all time frames as the 20-day EMA is now above the 50-day EMA, which is above the 200-day EMA as well. The positive bullish sentiment is further confirmed with the MACD above 0. There has been some temporary consolidation with the declining histogram. Although this consolidation is overall bullish, it will likely consolidate further at the bullish range as selling pressure decreases. Considering the RSI, which is near 59.5, there is still balanced momentum, and the price may extend a little further toward overbought territory. The stochastic oscillator, though, has entered overbought around 90, indicating that short-term pullbacks or sideways action could materialize before any breakout on the upside. Key structural levels are currently guiding the near-term direction. Near-term resistance remains at 99.900 and 100.910, and intermediate support is at 98.400 (50% Fibonacci) and 96.735 (38.2% Fibonacci). A close above 100.000 on the daily chart would validate further extension of the larger bullish cycle, guiding to the psychological 101.500–102.000 area. On the other hand, a breakdown below the trendline, which presently crosses near 97.000, would swing momentum toward a more significant correction. Since the larger structure is still printing higher lows and ascending toward the rising trendline, the market bias continues to be bullish, especially when considering the corrections as potential accumulation phases of the overall uptrend.