FX.co ★ Skull999 | NZD/USD

NZDUSD Daily Forecast The moving averages indicate the NZDUSD daily chart still exhibits a well-defined and dominant bearish trend, and the price action remains guided downward by a clearly defined falling channel. The pair has registered steady lower highs and lower lows, accentuating the sellers dominance over the past few months. Having encountered resistance at 0.6020 in mid-August, the market then went into an extended downtrend, and the price has subsequently fallen towards the lower edge of the channel, probing levels around 0.5700. The configuration of moving averages also reinforces such structural weakness, as 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages are all moving lower, confirming that the bearish momentum remains. The price is currently below these averages, which are dynamic resistance levels, and this also reinforces the bias of the price action. The last few sessions have recorded some minor consolidation around 0.5740, following a slight bounce from the most recent swing low of 0.5670.The resulting Fibonacci retracement drawn from the recent swing high at approximately 0.6020 to the swing low at 0.5670 defines key retracement areas where the pair might face resistance. The 23.6% retracement level is approximately 0.5766, which coincides with the short-term consolidation top, while higher retracement levels are found near 0.5830 at 38.2% and 0.5860 at 50.0%. These levels will be likely acting as resistance should the pair try to make a short-term corrective rally within the downtrend. As long as price fails to break through 0.5860, the general bearish configuration will continue to hold sway. On the negative side, near-term support is at 0.5670, and then a more important support zone around 0.5630, which coincides with the lower channel trendline. A firm close below 0.5670 would most probably lead to a continuation to 0.5600, a new multi-month low. The candlestick action indicates that the sellers are still in charge, though the latest small-bodied candles indicate uncertainty and a likely break in bearish momentum. This is typical following steep drops, as the market reevaluates before resuming its main trend. The downtrend channel pattern is still in place, and as long as price action is contained within it, short-term rallies are to be seen as corrective rather than a trend reversal. For any significant change in market structure to manifest, price would have to break above the falling trendline resistance near 0.5790–0.5810, which also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. Such an outcome could result in a deeper correction toward 0.5860, or even up to 0.5920, where the 200-day moving average currently lies. On the other hand, the continued rejection around 0.5760 would certainly increase the possibility of the bears strengthening the next impulse down. From the indicators, the MACD remains below the zero line, and the histogram is contracting. This means the overall bearish momentum is decreasing but the bears are still in control. In contrast, the RSI is approximately 43. This indicates the market is still bearish, although not in an oversold situation, which means the market could continue to move bearish. The stochastic oscillator, meanwhile, is around 66. This means that the short-term momentum is slightly positive which implies the market could experience a short-term pullback prior to a larger downtrend. This disparate indicator configuration lends itself to the expectation of a short-term correction phase in line with an overall bearish market. This, however, would only be confirmed by the price offering a clear breakout above the key resistance. The formation of lower highs, along with insistent resistance from the moving averages and the down-sloping trendline, heavily favors a continuation of the bearish cycle. Traders will want to watch the 0.5760–0.5790 area as the next key resistance zone where the sellers are expected to return. A daily close below 0.5670 would validate fresh downside momentum and potentially speed the decline to 0.5630 and potentially 0.5600. Conversely, if the buyers are able to hold 0.5700 and drive the price back above 0.5810, this could be a starting signal for a stronger correction to 0.5860–0.5900. In general, the structure of the trend remains bearish within the built channel, and rallies back to levels of resistance will continue to draw in new selling pressure, maintaining NZDUSD skewed to the south short-term.