FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

On USD/CHF D1 and H4, I continue to observe that there are no significant structural changes, and I still see the triangle formation holding firmly in place as the dominant consolidation pattern. I see that the southerly wave, from a purely graphical perspective, should logically extend toward the lower boundary of the triangle near 0.7710, where I identify strong horizontal support, and I consider this zone critical for short-term reactions. I notice, however, that on the daily timeframe I still see CCI and MACD pointing gradually north, and although I recognize that their momentum has slowed and they are approaching the neutral line, I interpret this as a slight but persistent bullish advantage that I cannot ignore. I understand that this creates a conflict between price structure and oscillator bias, and I interpret this divergence as a sign of compression rather than directional clarity. I observe that the entire consolidation inside the triangle is developing on volumes below the daily average, and I interpret this as a lack of participation from larger market players, which reinforces my view that the market is waiting for a catalyst. I define 0.7747 as my key daily control level, and I use this level to gauge intraday sentiment shifts. I also see on the H4 timeframe that CCI and MACD confirm the absence of a strong trend, and I interpret the current movement as a sideways range between 0.7710 and 0.7771. I believe that a breakout from this range will define the next impulsive leg, and I currently assess that the probability slightly favors an upward exit toward 0.7791 and possibly 0.7799. I acknowledge that EMA200 reinforces resistance near that zone, and I therefore remain cautious about expecting sustained upside continuation. I conclude that I would only consider a buy scenario upon a confirmed breakout and consolidation above 0.7771, because I want momentum and structure to align before committing capital.

I see that sellers in USD/CHF are still actively defending their positions, and I observe that they have managed to drag the price back toward the 0.7730 level, which I consider a short-term battlefield between bulls and bears. I notice that despite this pressure, I do not yet see strong acceptance below 0.7730, and I interpret this hesitation as a sign that buyers are still attempting to stabilize the pair. I believe that as long as I see price holding around or slightly above 0.7730, I can consider the possibility of a modest upward correction toward 0.7750 and then 0.7765. I understand that these upside targets remain limited in scope, and I view them as intraday or short-term recovery levels rather than the beginning of a large bullish impulse. I think that if I see a clear consolidation and sustained acceptance above 0.7765, I could then anticipate continued growth toward 0.7790, and I would also keep 0.7815 in mind as an extended bullish objective, assuming momentum strengthens. I remain cautious, however, because I recognize that the franc still shows relative resilience, and I do not yet see evidence of broad CHF weakness that would justify aggressive upside expectations. I also consider the alternative scenario carefully, and I acknowledge that if I see sellers achieve a firm consolidation below 0.7730, I would then shift my focus toward 0.7700–0.7690 as the next downside target zone. I understand that a confirmed break and consolidation below 0.7690 would significantly strengthen bearish control, and I would then project further declines toward 0.7675, 0.7660, 0.7645, and 0.7630. I recognize that 0.7600 would then come into view relatively quickly, and I would treat that level as a psychologically important support where I expect renewed volatility and potential profit-taking from short positions.