FX.co ★ XEvils-Ash | XAG/USD, SILVER

As bullish traders work to create a secondary higher bottom that might result in a short-term shift in the trend and, if the correct catalyst materializes, a challenge of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, spot silver is rising overnight. This is all happening at the top of a significant value zone and near a long-term 50% level. In other words, this seems to be the beginning of a long-term campaign rather than haphazard purchases. Although there are hazards because nothing works 100% of the time, the short-term structure appears great thus far. However, I'm disappointed by the volume, which is frequently the cause of these chart patterns failing. The chart pattern is not very complex. Actually, it's all about retracement zones, peaks, and bottoms. Oscillators and moving averages are not even relevant. 50% of the all-time range is $60.835; 61.8% of the all-time range is $46.48; the long-term range is $0.00 to $121.67. Our long-term value zone is formed by the retracement levels. The trading gods have given us 50% to 61.8% of the all-time range, yet it's funny how many traders are keeping an eye on price movement around a 50% level on the hourly chart. My swing chart and moving averages show that the trend is downward; thus, traders are still in a "sell the rally" mindset. The most recent swing downward was from $71.56 to $55.60. The increase to $63.28 ended at $63.58, slightly below the 50% mark. This week, $63.28 became a new swing top after three days of selling pressure. The most recent bounce up was from $55.60 to $63.28. We are currently testing its retracement zone, which is between $59.44 and $58.53.

an attempt to maintain the downtrend beneath the swing bottom at $55.60, aggressive trend traders are simultaneously attempting to overwhelm the buyers and drive the market down. The price movement and order flow between $59.44 and $58.53 will have our whole attention on Friday. It will indicate whether the buyers or sellers are winning. In order to drive the market upward through 50% of the all-time high at $60.83, the swing top at $63.28, and the 50% level at $63.58, if the buyers prevail, look for fresh money and shorts. This could generate the upward momentum required to challenge the 50-day MA at $69.95 and the 200-day MA at $70.19 if it is successful. If sellers take back control and push the market through $57.22, the bullish scenario is probably going to collapse. In this instance, momentum will accelerate downward, and $55.60 will become noticeable. Due to a chronic production deficit and increased industrial consumption, silver's fundamentals are tight. Because most silver is produced as a byproduct of base metals, mine production is still limited, and the market is expected to have a shortfall for the sixth year in a row in 2026. While jewelry and investment-driven demand is still more cyclical, silver's demand is sustained by robust use for industrial purposes, including solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics, and more generally, AI-related technology. On the 4-hour chart, silver is trading at $57.73. After a significant decline from the $69.85 high, price candles are still mixed as we maintain the 50-period EMA around $59.61. Lower highs are still being set by red and bearish candles. The 50-period EMA is serving as resistance around $62.81, while the volume profile displays a region of strength between $56 and $58. Below $61.71, the price is neutral or bearish as it tries to maintain this support throughout a general decline. Longer wicks on resistance rejection indicate that sellers are active at these levels. I would be interested in a short near $57.73 with a target of $55.60 based on the present technical outlook. The stop will be set above $59.36. The most noteworthy aspect of current silver trading is a persistent incapacity to recover and maintain territory above the $60 region rather than a major panic. Depending on the instrument and data source, intraday readings for July 13 showed silver trading in the high $59s to low $60s. Spot silver was close to $59.22, while futures were at $59.81 after starting at $59.98. Such actions frequently indicate a market in which rallies are becoming less powerful. Although they are still there, buyers don't seem to be taking charge. Rather, price action points to a metal that is still susceptible to the same macro factors that were covered in the first draft: the dollar, interest rates, and a cautious international environment.