FX.co ★ skulltrader | NZD/USD

NZDUSD Analysis The weekly chart of the NZD/USD reflects the overall downtrend that has dominated the pair since its peak at 0.7460 in February 2021. Since that peak, the NZD/USD has been in an alternating downtrend with higher highs and lower lows. Recent price action suggests a reversal and this longer-term downtrend may have entered a structural phase. The NZD/USD pair declined sharply between February 2021 and October 2022, hitting a low of 0.5510 during the week of October 10, 2022. This level served as important support for the NZD/USD, which it retested in November 2022 and most recently in October 2024, forming a notable double bottom. In late October 2024, the price clearly broke this range, indicating a potentially important baseline. This triple bottom pattern around 0.5510 indicates an impending sell-off and trend reversal. The most striking event on the current chart is the break of the descending resistance line that has hampered the uptrend since the August 2023 low at 0.6575. This break occurred during the week of May 27, 2025, when the price broke the trendline at 0.5970 and closed at 0.6015. It also broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the decline from the 2021 high at 0.7460 to the October 2022 low at 0.5510. This break is technically significant as it reverses the previous bearish structure and paves the way for a new uptrend targeting key Fib levels. From May 2023 to April 2024, the NZD/USD pair traded in a choppy sideways movement between a high of 0.6080 and a low of 0.5860. The sideways market lost direction for almost a year until a sharp decline in April 2024 forced it to test the long-term support line at 0.5510. This test acted as a bear trap and triggered a trend reversal with a break of several resistance levels. After the break of the descending trendline, the next technical target is near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6200. This level coincides with several highs recorded during the sideways movement in August and October 2023 and represents a consolidated resistance level. A weekly close above 0.6200 would strengthen the bullish case and support a move towards the 50.0% retracement level at 0.6520, which would represent the midpoint of the entire 2021-2022 downtrend. The breakout point at 0.5970 formed immediate support with further declines to 0.5860. 0.5860 formed a horizontal base during the sideways move from mid-2023 to early 2024. A break below 0.5860 would invalidate the upside breakout and risk a return to stronger structural support levels such as 0.5660 and 0.5510. As long as price remains above 0.5970, the short- and medium-term structures remain bullish. Technical indicators support the uptrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher and is currently at 59.67. This indicates an uptrend, although the overbought territory has not yet been reached. This suggests further gains are possible before a downtrend begins. The Stochastics oscillator is also showing bullish momentum. The %K line above 71 signals an uptrend and ongoing buying pressure. The MACD indicator has formed a bullish crossover just above its signal line, supporting the recent uptrend as a momentum shift. In addition, the moving averages have stabilized and are supporting the uptrend. The short-term moving averages (10- and 20-week EMAs) are currently trending higher and the price has been consistently closing above them since the last week of April 2025. This not only indicates a breakout but also a potential trend reversal. Additionally, it will be important to confirm the trend reversal if these moving averages cross the longer-term 50-week EMA and continue to rise. In terms of structure, a break of the downtrend line and a successful retest and recovery near 0.5970 would be a typical bullish reversal pattern that could lead to a multi-week rally. A double bottom at 0.5510 and a possible break of the neckline at 0.6080 would set the stage for further technical gains. If the retest of this neckline continues, the expected target for this pattern could be extended to the 0.6520 area, confirming a trend reversal. To summarize, the weekly chart of NZD/USD is seeing a major reversal on the technical side. The long-term downtrend is weakening and it has broken above the trendline resistance and key Fib levels. The bulls are gaining strength and the price is currently fixated above 0.5970 and is heading towards 0.6200. Technical indicators also support this trend. As long as the support remains above 0.5860, the outlook remains positive and we could see 0.6200, 0.6520 and possibly 0.6740 tested in the coming weeks.