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FX.co ★ Ukraine Holds Interest Rate Steady at 15.5%

Ukraine Holds Interest Rate Steady at 15.5%

The National Bank of Ukraine has opted to maintain its policy rate at 15.5% in a bid to stabilize the foreign exchange markets and anchor inflation expectations. The central bank's objective is to gradually bring inflation down to the 5% target. Inflation had reached its peak in May but started to decline in June, although it remained slightly above projections due to unfavorable weather conditions affecting food supply. The core inflation rate has decelerated faster than anticipated. The foreign exchange market has continued to demonstrate stability, buoyed by previous rate increases, and inflation expectations have mostly been held in check despite some mixed signals.

The NBU now anticipates inflation rates of 9.7% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and ultimately achieving the 5% target by 2027. Economic recovery is underway, though at a slow pace, hampered by conflict-related challenges and adverse weather conditions. The real GDP growth is forecasted at 2.1% for 2025. Continued external financial assistance, projected at USD 54 billion in 2025, is crucial for maintaining macroeconomic stability. Key risks include an extended conflict, inadequate financial aid, and additional infrastructure damage. The NBU intends to uphold stringent monetary conditions until inflation shows a consistent decline.

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