FX.co ★ Jackroay | #Bitcoin chart analysis

On the daily chart, BTCUSD is moving within a well-defined descending channel, where recent price action shows a strong test of the upper boundary near the 37,000 mark. After this approach, BTCUSD faced notable resistance, and the bullish momentum started to fade, signaling that a possible reversal might be near. The inability to sustain growth above this channel boundary suggests that sellers could soon regain control, potentially pushing BTCUSD toward the lower boundary of the descending channel, which is estimated near the 19,845 level. The overall wave pattern for BTCUSD also provides interesting insights—while the W and X waves appear clearly structured, the Y wave introduces a flat and somewhat uncertain formation, which mirrors the complexity often seen in cryptocurrency markets. This flat structure indicates a lack of clear directional strength, implying that BTCUSD could experience another bearish impulse before establishing a more solid base. Technically, the pair remains constrained by the upper resistance of the descending trendline, and failure to break through could reinforce a renewed decline. Nonetheless, traders should note that the BTCUSD market is highly volatile, and even within a downward structure, sharp corrective rallies can occur.

Despite the prevailing downward channel, several indicators hint that BTCUSD might still attempt another upward leg before a potential reversal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator on the daily timeframe is nearing a bullish crossover, which, if confirmed, would suggest a temporary recovery phase. A break and close above the 37,660 resistance zone could extend BTCUSD gains by roughly 22%, possibly testing the 45,920 region. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 level, pointing upward near 60, indicating that buying momentum is still intact. From a broader perspective, BTCUSD is trading near medium-term support, which strengthens the argument for a possible upward continuation, especially if the price manages to break out from a wedge formation visible on the daily chart. In such a case, an upward breakout and a successful retest of the wedge’s upper boundary would create an ideal entry signal, targeting the 64,030 resistance area. Additionally, a bullish Wolfe Wave pattern has appeared within the broader uptrend, suggesting that BTCUSD could move toward the estimated profit target around 62,813. For risk management, traders might consider placing a stop-loss near 45,555, which provides a favorable risk-to-reward ratio given the potential upside. Overall, BTCUSD remains in a critical technical position—while short-term weakness may persist, the longer-term structure continues to support the possibility of an upward continuation if key resistance levels are decisively broken.