FX.co ★ Jackroay | USD/CHF

The USD/CHF pair on the four-hour chart continues to display a phase of consolidation within the upper segment of the Murray Regression Channel, where the bulls have once again failed to sustain a move above its upper boundary. At present, USD/CHF is trading near 0.7953, having retreated slightly from the recent highs, and the pair now appears to be gravitating toward the middle of the regression channel, near the key Murray 4/8 support level of 0.7935. The stochastic oscillator has turned downward after failing to reach its upper limit, signaling growing bearish momentum, which could push USD/CHF lower in the near term. Fundamentally, a potential decline in new home sales data from the United States could act as a negative catalyst for the U.S. dollar, encouraging further downside in USD/CHF. Despite these bearish signals, there remains an overarching uncertainty, as the pair is effectively trapped in a narrow sideways range between 0.7945 and 0.7985. This limited volatility underscores the indecisive market sentiment, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish firm control. Given that the long-term trend for USD/CHF remains predominantly bearish, every upward movement still appears more like a correction than a trend reversal. For now, USD/CHF is positioned in the sellers’ zone, suggesting that while selling opportunities may exist, the timing for entries must be precise to avoid getting caught in false breakouts during this consolidation phase.

From a tactical trading standpoint, USD/CHF continues to test the patience of traders, with price action confined between the 0.7947 and 0.7996 boundaries. Should USD/CHF start to move lower and touch 0.7945, the first short entry opportunity could appear around 0.7940 with a modest stop of 20 pips, aiming for downside targets at 0.7900 and possibly 0.7880 if momentum persists. However, if USD/CHF manages to sustain a breakout above 0.7975—corresponding to the EMA200 on the H4 chart—this could shift the short-term outlook toward the north, opening the way to 0.7995, 0.8025, 0.8045, and eventually 0.8065. A close above the EMA50 at 0.7955 would further strengthen the bullish case, hinting at renewed upward potential. Nevertheless, traders should remain cautious ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, which could inject significant volatility into USD/CHF. The market’s muted tone today also reflects the slower pace of Monday trading, amplified by Europe’s recent switch to winter time. For now, USD/CHF continues to oscillate without a decisive breakout, but once the Fed decision comes into play, the pair will likely choose its direction with clarity, setting the tone for the next phase of movement.