FX.co ★ HAPPY KILLER | EUR/USD

EUR/USD Weekly Timeframe Analysis 20 February 2026 Based on the weekly (W1) chart for EURUSD as of February 21, 2026, the pair is currently at a major technical crossroads. Following a prolonged bullish recovery that began in late 2024, the price action has transitioned into a complex consolidation phase, characterized by a series of higher highs and higher lows that are now facing significant resistance around the 1.1870 – 1.1900 psychological barrier. Technical Analysis: The Weekly View The chart reveals a robust long-term trendline support that has guided the Euro’s ascent since the December 2024 lows. However, momentum has visibly stalled in early 2026. The price is currently hovering around the 1.1780 mark, which aligns with a significant horizontal level (blue line) that has acted as both support and resistance over the past several months. From a candlestick perspective, the most recent weekly prints show long upper wicks, suggesting that sellers are aggressively defending the 1.20 region. The red moving average (likely a 20-period EMA) remains sloped upward, indicating that the primary trend is still technically bullish, but the price is now hugging this average. A sustained break below this EMA would signal a trend exhaustion and a potential shift toward a bearish or sideways regime. Fundamental headwinds—including sticky U.S. inflation and structural economic concerns in the Eurozone (notably German industrial softness)—are creating a tug-of-war effect. The market is currently waiting for a catalyst, likely the upcoming PCE inflation data or geopolitical developments, to determine if the Euro can reclaim 1.19 or if it will collapse back toward the 1.16 support zone. Trade Setup: The Decision Zone Play The current price action suggests a wait-and-see approach or a breakout strategy, as the pair is compressed between key levels. • Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish (Long-term) / Bearish (Short-term). • Entry (Long): Above 1.1875 (on a daily/weekly close). • Entry (Short): Below 1.1740 (targeting the 0.618 Fib retracement). • Primary Support: 1.1745 (Yearly Open / Recent Swing Low). • Primary Resistance: 1.1950 (Recent Higher Highs). • Take Profit: 1.2065 (Bullish) or 1.1550 (Bearish). • Stop Loss: 80–100 pips from entry to account for weekly volatility. Summary The EURUSD is in a squeeze between the rising trend support and the heavy supply zone at 1.1900. While the multi-month trajectory is up, the lack of follow-through at the highs and the recent slide toward 1.1780 suggests the bulls are losing steam. A break below 1.1740 would invalidate the immediate bullish thesis and likely trigger a deeper correction toward 1.1600.