FX.co ★ absh kaat | USD/CHF

I am closely monitoring USD/CHF as the new trading week begins, and I believe that if the sellers failed to push the pair lower on Friday, they may attempt to regain control on Monday or Tuesday. I am observing the four-hour timeframe and I see that the recent upward movement does not yet resemble a confirmed trend reversal, but rather looks like a corrective pullback within a broader downward wave. I am considering the possibility that the current rise is simply a technical retracement after impulsive bearish pressure, and I am not convinced that bulls have established sustainable momentum. I am aware that a genuine reversal scenario would require stronger confirmation, and I am specifically watching whether USD/CHF can consolidate above the weekly margin control zone at 0.7836. I am thinking that only a stable breakout and consolidation above that level would shift my bias toward a more bullish outlook. I am identifying the Murray 4/8 resistance at 0.7812 as the immediate upside target, and I am noting that this level aligns closely with the weekly MCZ area, which increases its technical importance. I am evaluating price behavior near this resistance because I expect that any signs of rejection there could reinforce the broader bearish structure. I am also reminding myself that it is premature to initiate short positions because I currently see no clear selling pattern or confirmed bearish entry signal. I am choosing patience over impulsive trading decisions, and I am waiting for structured confirmation such as a reversal candlestick pattern, a lower high formation, or momentum divergence. I am maintaining a cautious stance, and I am prioritizing risk management while I continue to observe whether this corrective phase evolves into a deeper bullish push or fades back into the prevailing downward trend.

I often find myself repeating my forecasts because I believe consistency is important when the broader technical structure has not significantly changed, and I only adjust my outlook when market conditions clearly demand it. I maintain my current forecast for USD/CHF because I still expect the price to rise toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.7870, which I consider the primary corrective target within the ongoing structure. I observe that the pair closed the trading week near the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level, and I recognize this as an important short-term barrier that could temporarily slow bullish momentum. I understand that the 50% retracement level lies slightly above the current price, and I see it as a stronger technical level due to its natural psychological significance among market participants. I also note that the 200-period moving average is positioned near the 50% retracement, and I interpret this confluence as a technically attractive zone for buyers who are looking for dynamic resistance to turn into support. I consider the possibility that the price may break above the 38.2% level early in the week, and I anticipate that such a breakout could lead to a temporary pullback from the 50% level as traders secure short-term profits. I remain confident, however, that this potential pullback would still be part of a broader corrective structure rather than a renewed bearish impulse. I focus on the 61.8% retracement at 0.7870 as the ultimate target because I view it as the classical completion point for corrections within a prevailing trend. I believe that reaching this level would allow the correction and the internal wave pattern to fully develop, and I plan to reassess the broader directional bias once the price reacts to that key Fibonacci resistance zone.