FX.co ★ Jackroay | GBP/USD

I see the current structure on GBP/USD as technically tilted to the downside, even though the broader context is not as clean as a textbook trend. I consider the move from late January to be a localized bearish phase rather than a fully stable macro trend, because I have observed several deep corrections that interrupted momentum and prevented smooth continuation. I acknowledge that selling at 1.3500 versus 1.3600 creates a meaningful difference in risk exposure, and I understand how entry precision significantly affects confidence and trade management. I focus primarily on the 1.3433 and 1.3380 levels as near-term downside magnets, and I believe that if momentum accelerates, the pair could extend toward 1.3350, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement target in my framework. I recognize that for the Fibonacci scenario to fully activate, I would prefer to see a push upward toward the 23.6% resistance before a renewed decline, because I rely on internal pattern completion to validate stronger bearish continuation. I admit that price has only pulled back modestly from the 50% support zone, and I interpret this as a pause rather than a confirmed reversal. I remain aware that geopolitical headlines and tariff decisions may inject volatility, but I deliberately prioritize structure, levels, and confirmation over reactive fundamental interpretation. I see 1.3570 as a potential rebound zone if price extends upward, and I believe that any rejection there could offer a technically cleaner sell than chasing momentum at the open. I also recognize that if price drops directly from current levels, I would anticipate an initial move toward 1.3400, followed by 1.3340, where I would reassess whether profit-taking or countertrend buying becomes justified.

I also consider the possibility that the dollar’s recent weakness across the board could temporarily disrupt the bearish structure, and I accept that a breakout above the descending trendline would force me to reevaluate my bias. I interpret a sustained consolidation above 1.3470 as an early structural warning sign that sellers are losing short-term control, and I would only activate buying scenarios after I see a confirmed break and hold above the trend resistance. I view the moving average behavior on H1 as mixed, because although there was a breakout suggesting potential reversal, the final candlestick weakened that signal and returned price below the average, which leaves the structure inconclusive rather than decisively bullish. I believe that buying from the midline around 1.3470 could make tactical sense if bullish momentum stabilizes there, but I still see selling on pullbacks as the higher-probability play until a confirmed structural shift occurs. I acknowledge that forecasting a move toward 1.3250 or even 1.3000 is not unrealistic within the pair’s historical volatility range, and I understand that such distances can be covered quickly before retracing. I accept that six-month projections are speculative, and I prefer to anchor my expectations to the next few weeks, where a controlled descent toward 1.3350 appears technically reasonable. I remind myself that predictability in trading is always conditional, and I focus on reacting to confirmed breaks, consolidations, and momentum shifts rather than insisting on a single narrative. I ultimately maintain that as long as the downward structure remains intact, I prioritize selling opportunities, but I stay flexible enough to pivot if price invalidates the bearish framework with a clear breakout and sustained bullish consolidation.