FX.co ★ Ambar Hassan | GBP/USD

I am also considering the possibility of a decline in the GBP/USD pair, but I believe that before any sustained drop occurs, we need to see a local corrective rally first. I base this outlook on my recent observations of the price action, particularly around a key Fibonacci level. I have noticed that the price is currently trading near the 50% Fibonacci retracement support level, and I view this as a significant area for potential reversal. I saw that the market reversed after testing this level, and I interpret this as an early signal that buying pressure may be entering the market. I would be very encouraged if a proper correction forms from this point because it would validate my short-term bullish outlook. In that scenario, I anticipate that we could see a controlled upward move to the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level. I believe this area represents the most logical target for a correction because it is the next major retracement level and often acts as a ceiling in a broader downtrend. I think that once the price reaches that resistance, it would be an ideal setup to reverse and resume the larger decline. If my analysis is correct, I expect the subsequent drop to target the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3350, which I calculate to be approximately 300 points away from the current market position

I must explain that my expectations are not arbitrary; they are based on a specific internal pattern that I am closely monitoring. I anticipate that this pattern will form during the anticipated move from the 50% support level up to the 23.6% resistance level. I am looking for this internal structure to confirm the strength of the correction and provide me with a high-probability entry point for a short position. I know that trading always involves uncertainty, and I am fully aware of the risks involved in this setup. I acknowledge that there is a chance that GBP/USD could rise a little further than I initially expect, perhaps extending to the 14.6% Fibonacci level if the bullish momentum is stronger than anticipated. However, I remain convinced that even if it pushes that far, the overall growth should still be capped relatively soon. I strongly believe that the upward move will ultimately end at the 23.6% Fibonacci level, if a rally even begins at all. I am prepared for the possibility that my anticipated correction might not materialize, but I am comfortable with my analysis. I am documenting these thoughts as my current perspective, and I will continue to monitor the price action to see if it aligns with the internal pattern I am expecting. I know that patience is key, and I am waiting for the market to give me the confirmation I need before making any decisions.